ACWA Power Company
Fundamental — what it's worthbottom-up fair value
Built up from a sum-of-the-parts NAV of the project portfolio, a discounted-cash-flow (FCFF) cross-check, relative multiples and a pipeline-maturation earnings read — what is it worth?
Is it cheap or expensive right now?
Latest price vs our fair value. A comparison, not a recommendation.
What it's worth — four lenses
Four independent valuation methods, blended into one weighted central fair value.
| Valuation lens | Per share (SAR) | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Sum-of-the-parts / NAV — primary | 215.30 | 40% |
| Discounted cash flow (FCFF) | 184.22 | 25% |
| Relative — P/E, P/B, EV/EBITDA | 158.10 | 15% |
| Pipeline-maturation earnings | 197.10 | 20% |
| Weighted central fair value | 195.30 | +0.7% vs spot |
The four lenses spread from SAR 158 (the relative read, which capitalises the depressed steady-state) to SAR 215 (the asset sum), bracketing spot — the spread is a statement about how much credit to give a mid-build portfolio, not a fragile single-lens artefact. Whether the Vision-2030 growth capital earns above its cost (ROIC vs Ke) as the under-construction book reaches commercial operation is the swing factor. Full detail is in the study and the open model.
Technical & price structuretrend, momentum, key levels
Trend, momentum and key levels — what is the price doing now?
What the chart says
In plain terms: ACWA Power trades almost exactly on our weighted central fair value of SAR 195 — fairly valued, with four lenses that disagree by magnitude, not direction. A sum-of-the-parts NAV of the contracted portfolio lands near SAR 215, a normalized-attributable discounted-cash-flow (FCFF) build near SAR 184, a relative-multiple read near SAR 158, and a pipeline-maturation earnings read near SAR 197. ACWA is the world’s largest private water desalinator and a Vision-2030 renewables champion: equity in a 108-project, ~SAR 437bn portfolio (93 GW power, 9.2m m³/day water) on 20–30-year offtake contracts, tripling assets toward US$250bn by 2030. The whole answer turns on one question — whether the enormous capital funding that growth earns above its cost; today’s reported returns say not yet (ROIC ~2.6% against an ~8–10% cost of capital) because much of the capital sits in projects still under construction. The bull case (~SAR 299) is that the SAR 100bn-plus under-construction book reaches commercial operation and returns ramp; the cautious case (~SAR 129) is that the growth proves value-dilutive. What moves it near-term is project awards, CODs and the rate path.
Key levels
Volatility & where the case breaks
| Typical daily moveRoughly how far the price swings in an average day (based on a measure called ATR). Bigger means choppier. | ~2.4% |
Monte Carlo — where could the price go?near-term price paths
50,000 simulated futures — near-term price paths, independent of the fundamental value.
The 5th–95th and 25th–75th percentile bands from the 50,000-path simulation. Static and pre-computed — independent of the fundamental levers above.
The exact percentiles
The 5th / 25th / middle / 75th / 95th outcomesLine up all 50,000 outcomes low to high — these are the values at the 5%, 25%, 50%, 75% and 95% marks., from 50,000 paths.
| Timeframe | Rare low (5%) | 25% | Middle | 75% | Rare high (95%) |
|---|
What drives the odds
50,000 paths, 16 forces: the Saudi/global rate path (the discount-rate driver), oil and the fiscal impulse, Vision-2030 / PIF pipeline momentum, global power & water demand, TASI beta and foreign flows, the SAR/USD peg, and project construction costs — plus event forces: a quarterly results surprise, a new financial close or PPA award, a COD milestone, a NEOM green-hydrogen step, a Fed/rate surprise, a capital or dividend action, an impairment or project delay, a divestment gain, and an index-flow rebalance. Details in the methodology.
Peer set & risks
Where ACWA Power sits in its markets
ACWA Power is the world’s largest private water desalinator and a Vision-2030 renewables champion — a developer-owner-operator of contracted power and water projects, not a regulated utility, and with no clean single comparable. It screens as a scarcity asset on scale and sponsorship rather than on near-term earnings. This is a competitive map, not a price table.
| Arena | ACWA's position | Main rivals / context |
|---|---|---|
| Power portfolio | ~93 GW (52 GW renewable) | global renewables IPPs |
| Water desalination | ~25% of world private capacity | Veolia · developer peers |
| Assets under management | ~SAR 437bn | tripling to US$250bn by 2030 |
| Green hydrogen | NEOM — world's largest | first-mover optionality |
| PIF sponsorship | ~70% of Saudi renewables pipeline | near-monopoly at home |
| Reported P/E | ~78× trailing / ~55× fwd | capitalises the pipeline, not steady-state |
The debate is not quality but whether the capital tripling ACWA’s assets earns above its cost — the sum-of-the-parts says the parts are worth ~SAR 215, the returns-on-capital lens is more cautious at ~SAR 158–184. Competitive map, not advice.
About this series & how we build these
Want the full study and the spreadsheet?
Full write-up plus the editable Excel model.
Found a flaw? Attack the model
The full study (PDF) and Excel model are available on a computer.
Edition: 1 Jul 2026. Older editions stay in the Library.