ADNOC Gas
Fundamental — what it's worthbottom-up fair value
Built up from an explicit five-year cash-flow forecast, a dividend-discount model, relative multiples and the dividend yield — what is it worth?
Is it cheap or expensive right now?
Latest price vs our fair value. A comparison, not a recommendation.
What it's worth — five lenses
Five independent valuation methods, blended into one weighted central fair value.
| Valuation lens | Per share (AED) | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Dividend-discount (committed DPS) — primary | 3.41 | 35% |
| DCF (5-yr FCFF) | 4.50 | 20% |
| Relative EV/EBITDA | 3.83 | 15% |
| Justified P/E | 3.62 | 15% |
| Dividend yield | 3.83 | 15% |
| Weighted central fair value | 3.79 | +10% vs spot |
The five lenses span AED 3.41 (dividend-discount, the floor — what the minority actually receives) to AED 4.50 (DCF, the ceiling — the whole enterprise’s cash flow). The gap between them is retained cash ADNOC controls. The Brent-linked export price and whether that gap ever closes are the swing factors. Full detail and the five lenses are in the study and the open model.
Technical & price structuretrend, momentum, key levels
Trend, momentum and key levels — what is the price doing now?
What the chart says
In plain terms: ADNOC Gas trades a little below our weighted central fair value — roughly fairly valued to modestly cheap, and priced less as a growth stock than as a sovereign-backed income instrument yielding about 5%. It supplies about 60% of the UAE’s sales gas under a 25-year take-or-pay contract, so the domestic book is a contracted annuity; the roughly 40% liquids-and-LNG export leg is oil-linked and carries the earnings swing. The gap between our lenses is the story: on the whole enterprise’s cash flow the shares look cheap (DCF ~AED 4.50), but on the dividend the shareholder actually receives they look fair (dividend-discount ~AED 3.41, essentially spot). ADNOC owns about 86% and controls whether the retained cash is ever paid out. What moves it is the Brent-linked export price and whether that gap between enterprise value and the paid dividend ever closes.
Key levels
Volatility & where the case breaks
| Typical daily moveRoughly how far the price swings in an average day (based on a measure called ATR). Bigger means choppier. | ~1% |
Monte Carlo — where could the price go?near-term price paths
50,000 simulated futures — near-term price paths, independent of the fundamental value.
The 5th–95th and 25th–75th percentile bands from the 50,000-path simulation. Static and pre-computed — independent of the fundamental levers above.
The exact percentiles
The 5th / 25th / middle / 75th / 95th outcomesLine up all 50,000 outcomes low to high — these are the values at the 5%, 25%, 50%, 75% and 95% marks., from 50,000 paths.
| Timeframe | Rare low (5%) | 25% | Middle | 75% | Rare high (95%) |
|---|
What drives the odds
50,000 paths, 16 forces: the Brent-linked export price, global gas and LNG demand, US real rates via the dirham peg, the DXY, ADX market flows, the committed-dividend anchor and a gas-price-volatility regime — plus event forces: a regional-security or facilities event, a new LNG/gas offtake agreement, a dividend change, an acquisition or expansion milestone, a gas-price shock, an earnings print, a regulatory or tariff change, and index-inclusion flows. Details in the methodology.
Peer set & risks
Where ADNOC Gas sits in its markets
ADNOC Gas is the UAE’s integrated gas-processing and sales champion — it gathers, processes and markets around 60% of the country’s sales gas, plus liquids and LNG for export. Peers trade in different currencies and aren’t directly value-comparable, so this is a competitive map, not a price table.
| Arena | ADNOC Gas's position | Main rivals |
|---|---|---|
| UAE sales-gas supply | ~60% of the country’s sales gas | Dolphin Energy · ADNOC upstream |
| Contracted revenue base | 25-yr take-or-pay (domestic) | utility-like annuity |
| LNG export (Ruwais ramp) | Scaling to ~15+ mtpa by 2028 | QatarEnergy · Cheniere · Shell |
| Gas processing & NGLs | National integrated processor | regional gas processors |
| Dividend yield (Gulf energy) | ~5%, growing ~5%/yr to 2030 | Aramco · ADNOC Distribution |
| Global gas-infra comparables | EV/EBITDA ~8–9× | Cheniere · Williams · Snam |
The investment debate turns less on any single arena than on the Brent-linked export price and how much of ADNOC Gas's contracted, low-cost cash flow reaches the minority shareholder after ADNOC's ~86% claim. Competitive map, not advice.
About this series & how we build these
Want the full study and the spreadsheet?
Full write-up plus the editable Excel model.
Found a flaw? Attack the model
The full study (PDF) and Excel model are available on a computer.
Edition: 1 Jul 2026. Older editions stay in the Library.