Agthia Group PJSC
Fundamental — what it's worthbottom-up fair value
Built up from four lenses — a consolidated DCF at a sleeve-built 10.6% WACC (primary), a four-segment sum-of-the-parts, a relative EV/EBITDA cross-check and a normalized-earnings view — blended into one weighted central fair value. What is it worth?
Is it cheap or expensive right now?
Latest price vs our fair value. A comparison, not a recommendation.
What it's worth — five lenses
Five independent valuation methods, blended into one weighted central fair value.
| Valuation lens | Per share (AED) | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Consolidated DCF (FCFF) — primary | 4.60 | 35% |
| Segment sum-of-the-parts | 4.24 | 25% |
| Relative multiples (EV/EBITDA) | 3.83 | 15% |
| Normalized earnings power | 4.51 | 25% |
| Weighted central fair value | 4.37 | +25% vs spot |
The DCF runs at a sleeve-built WACC — Ke 9.6% on the UAE half, 17% on the Egypt/Jordan half — with terminal value 70% of enterprise value, disclosed and stress-tested rather than buried. The Snacking margin path and the KSA plant ramp are the swing factors; green coffee ($/lb) and the EGP are the observable levers. Full detail and the four lenses are in the study and the open model.
Technical & price structuretrend, momentum, key levels
Trend, momentum and key levels — what is the price doing now?
What the chart says
In plain terms: Agthia trades about 25% below our weighted central fair value — cheap on every fundamental lens, though the tape is soft and sits below all four moving averages. It is Abu Dhabi’s food-security champion: Al Ain water, Grand Mills flour and Agrivita feed, an Egypt-centred snacking portfolio (Abu Auf, BMB, Al Foah) and a protein arm (Nabil, Atyab) ramping a new Saudi plant, with ADQ as the majority owner. Reported FY2025 looked dreadful — EPS 0.103, EBITDA −32% — but AED 143mn of that is ring-fenced provisions, not lost operating power: underlying EBITDA held a 12.5% margin and Q1 2026 already turned (revenue +3.3%, profit +12.5%) while paying a 6.3% dividend yield. On the lenses the consolidated DCF reads AED 4.60, the segment sum-of-the-parts 4.24, conservative multiples 3.83 and normalized earnings 4.51 — a weighted central near 4.37. The bull case is the Snacking margin rebuilding (green coffee and the Egyptian pound are the levers) and the KSA plant filling; the cautious case (~3.05) is a third year of provisions or an Egypt shock. One honesty note: on this name the three-month Monte Carlo ties — matches — a naïve benchmark (its skill margin sits on zero), so the odds below are an honest, well-calibrated probability map rather than a demonstrated edge — the fundamental work is unaffected.
Key levels
Volatility & where the case breaks
| Typical daily moveRoughly how far the price swings in an average day (based on a measure called ATR). Bigger means choppier. | ~1.4% |
Monte Carlo — where could the price go?near-term price paths
50,000 simulated futures — near-term price paths, independent of the fundamental value.
The 5th–95th and 25th–75th percentile bands from the 50,000-path simulation. Static and pre-computed — independent of the fundamental levers above.
The exact percentiles
The 5th / 25th / middle / 75th / 95th outcomesLine up all 50,000 outcomes low to high — these are the values at the 5%, 25%, 50%, 75% and 95% marks., from 50,000 paths.
| Timeframe | Rare low (5%) | 25% | Middle | 75% | Rare high (95%) |
|---|
What drives the odds
50,000 paths, 16 forces: GCC consumer & UAE tourism demand, the Snacking reset execution, the input-commodity basket (coffee, wheat, resin), EGP/JOD translation, water-category competition & the summer season, rates/ADX flows, and Red Sea logistics cost — plus event forces: the Q2 2026 print, an interim-dividend step-up, bolt-on M&A, a commodity spike, an EGP devaluation step, a regional geopolitical escalation, a KSA protein/food-security win, a Snacking-reset disappointment, and an ADQ corporate/index event. On this name the engine ties — matches — its the calibration back-test benchmark (CRPS skill ≈ 0, the confidence interval spans zero, PIT well-calibrated): no demonstrated edge, but not a failed calibration — see the ledger and methodology.
Peer set & risks
Where Agthia sits in its markets
Agthia is a multi-category food & beverage group spanning several arenas, and its position differs in each. Rivals trade in different currencies and aren't directly value-comparable, so this is a competitive map, not a price table.
| Arena | Agthia's position | Main rivals |
|---|---|---|
| UAE bottled water & beverages | #1 — Al Ain, VOSS, Riviere | Masafi · Mai Dubai · Nestlé Pure Life |
| UAE flour & animal feed (regulated) | Strategic — Grand Mills · Agrivita | Al Ghurair Foods · NFPC |
| Egypt & regional snacking | Growing — Abu Auf · BMB · Al Foah | Edita · local roasters · date houses |
| MENA protein & frozen | Regional — Nabil · Atyab + KSA plant | Americana · Siniora · Tanmiah · Almunajem |
| GCC staples peer set (valuation) | ~7.0× EV/underlying EBITDA · ~6.3% yield | Almarai · Savola · NADEC · Juhayna |
The investment debate turns on whether FY2025's write-downs were the cost of resetting the portfolio or a symptom of a lower-quality one — and whether the market keeps pricing a UAE-sovereign-adjacent balance sheet at Egypt-adjacent multiples. Competitive map, not advice.
About this series & how we build these
Want the full study and the spreadsheet?
Full write-up plus the editable Excel model.
Found a flaw? Attack the model
The full study (PDF) and Excel model are available on a computer.
Edition: 06 Jul 2026. Older editions stay in the Library.