Aldar Properties PJSC
Fundamental — what it's worthbottom-up fair value
Built up split-the-legs from Aldar Development's finite going-concern DCF and Aldar Investment's ~AED 52bn recurring-asset GAV, then net of debt and minorities — what is it worth?
Is it cheap or expensive right now?
Latest price vs our fair value. A comparison, not a recommendation.
Technical & price structuretrend, momentum, key levels
Trend, momentum and key levels — what is the price doing now?
What the chart says
In plain terms: Aldar trades about 22% below our weighted central fair value — undervalued across every lens, though the tape has corrected ~29% and is consolidating. It is really a developer-holding-company: a listed build-to-sell business (Aldar Development, ~85% owned), a recurring mall-and-hotel portfolio anchored by the world’s most-visited Dubai Mall, an Egyptian arm (Aldar Misr, ~86%), international development, and ~AED 25bn of net cash. Record 2025 results — AED 80.4bn of sales, a AED 155bn backlog — yet the whole trades at a ~31% discount to the sum of its parts (a gross NAV near AED 17.6). The bull case (~AED 18.75) is that the discount compresses toward ~10% as the recurring portfolio is crystallised and a supportive anchor pushes capital return; the cautious case (~AED 11.08) is the discount staying wide as the Dubai cycle rolls over. What moves it is the multiple the market pays for the recurring portfolio and the direction of that NAV discount.
Key levels
Volatility & where the case breaks
| Typical daily moveRoughly how far the price swings in an average day (based on a measure called ATR). Bigger means choppier. | ~2.1% |
Monte Carlo — where could the price go?near-term price paths
50,000 simulated futures — near-term price paths, independent of the fundamental value.
The 5th–95th and 25th–75th percentile bands from the 50,000-path simulation. Static and pre-computed — independent of the fundamental levers above.
What it's worth
A weighted central fair value blended across the study's valuation lenses (RNAV, going-concern DCF, relative multiples and normalized earnings). The detailed per-lens breakdown for this name is being refreshed — see the full study and open model for the current build; the headline range below is current.
| Cautious case (normalized floor) | 7.95 |
| Bull case (RNAV/DCF ceiling) | 11.77 |
| Weighted central fair value | 10.18 · +23% vs spot |
The exact percentiles
The 5th / 25th / middle / 75th / 95th outcomesLine up all 50,000 outcomes low to high — these are the values at the 5%, 25%, 50%, 75% and 95% marks., from 50,000 paths.
| Timeframe | Rare low (5%) | 25% | Middle | 75% | Rare high (95%) |
|---|
What drives the odds
50,000 paths, 16 forces: US/Fed rates via the dirham peg, Dubai residential & off-plan absorption, DFM / foreign-flows beta, oil / GCC liquidity, population & golden-visa demand, the recurring retail-and-tourism trajectory and construction cost — plus event forces: backlog conversion / strong sales, Dubai-cycle re-rating / discount compression, a recurring-portfolio crystallisation, a Dubai-Holding buyback, a two-sided earnings surprise, a Dubai property correction, a Fed higher-for-longer shock, an Egypt macro/FX shock, and a regional risk-off. Details in the methodology.
Peer set & risks
Where Aldar Properties sits in its markets
Aldar is a developer-plus-landlord spanning several arenas, and its position differs in each. Rivals trade in different currencies and aren't directly value-comparable, so this is a competitive map, not a price table.
| Arena | Aldar's position | Main rivals |
|---|---|---|
| Abu Dhabi master-developer (build-to-sell) | #1 — dominant | Emaar · DAMAC · Modon · Bloom |
| UAE recurring retail & commercial | Large, growing (96% occ.) | Emaar Malls · Majid Al Futtaim · Nakheel |
| UAE hospitality & leasing | Large, integrated | Emaar · MAF · independents |
| Egypt development (via SODIC) | Top-tier premium | TMG · Palm Hills · Mountain View |
| International development | Selective (UK — London Square) | local developers per market |
| Recurring platform (Aldar Investment) | ~AED 52bn GAV | — develop-to-hold portfolio |
The investment debate turns on how much of the replenishing development franchise the market credits beyond today's AED 71.7bn backlog, and the cap rate on the ~AED 52bn recurring platform. Competitive map, not advice.
About this series & how we build these
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Edition: 08 Jul 2026. Older editions stay in the Library.