Alpha Dhabi Alpha Dhabi Holding PJSC
Fundamental — what it's worthbottom-up fair value
Built as a mark-to-market sum-of-the-parts NAV — the listed stakes at exchange prices plus Trojan at its transaction mark — cross-checked against a consolidated DCF, look-through multiples and the stated dividend policy — what is it worth?
Is it cheap or expensive right now?
Latest price vs our fair value. A comparison, not a recommendation.
What it's worth — the lenses
Independent valuation methods, blended into one weighted central fair value.
| Valuation lens | Per share (AED) | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Sum-of-the-parts NAV — primary (15% holdco discount) | 6.32 | 55% |
| · Marked NAV at par (0% discount) | 7.44 | — |
| Consolidated FCFF DCF (the ceiling) | 11.72 | 15% |
| Look-through relative (P/E 9.5×) | 8.07 | 15% |
| Dividend policy, discounted (DDM) | 4.55 | 15% |
| Weighted central fair value | 7.13 | −13% vs spot |
The lenses span AED 5.95 (weighted cautious) to 8.63 (weighted bull) — reweighted 11-07-2026 (55/15/15/15, from 45/15/25/15) after an external audit flagged the look-through lens as a partial double-count of the marks already in the SOTP. The sum-of-the-parts is the primary read — the four listed stakes at exchange prices, Trojan marked on the ADQ deal’s buyer-outlay basis (≈ AED 5.0 bn for 49%; the seller-note framing of AED 3,562 mn is carried as an explicit sensitivity — par NAV 7.29 instead of 7.44), and the residual audited book at carrying value — and the whole debate is the premium: spot sits ~10% above even the undiscounted NAV of 7.44. The DCF’s 11.72 is a multi-year ceiling (80% terminal value, working-capital absorption still heavy) weighted at just 15%. Full detail is in the study and the open model.
Technical & price structuretrend, momentum, key levels
Trend, momentum and key levels — what is the price doing now?
What the chart says
In plain terms: Alpha Dhabi is a holding company, so we price what it owns. Four of its five biggest assets trade on the ADX every day — 31.6% of Aldar (worth AED 20.5 bn at market), 76.7% of NMDC Group (14.4 bn), 35.1% of PureHealth (8.6 bn) and 73.7% of NCTH (2.4 bn) — and the fifth, 51% of Trojan Construction, was priced by a real transaction when ADQ bought the other 49%. Add the rest of the audited book at carrying value and the whole holding is worth about AED 7.44 a share before any holdco discount, or ~6.32 at a standard 15% discount. The market pays AED 8.22 — a premium of roughly 10% over the undiscounted parts, which is the entire debate: it is a bet that the IHC deal pipeline and the fair-value-gain engine keep compounding book value faster than you could yourself. A consolidated cash-flow model says ~11.7 is possible once the working-capital build normalizes (we weight that lightly — it is a ceiling, not an anchor), look-through earnings say ~8.1, and the stated AED 2 bn dividend policy discounts to just ~4.6. The weighted central is ~7.30, about 11% below spot, after a year in which the shares already fell 33% and touched 6.84 during the spring Gulf war — which remains the live tail under every number on this page.
Key levels
Volatility & where the case breaks
| Typical daily moveRoughly how far the price swings in an average day (based on a measure called ATR). Bigger means choppier. | ~2.1% |
Monte Carlo — where could the price go?near-term price paths
50,000 simulated futures — near-term price paths, independent of the fundamental value.
The 5th–95th and 25th–75th percentile bands from the 50,000-path simulation. Static and pre-computed — independent of the fundamental levers above.
The exact percentiles
The 5th / 25th / middle / 75th / 95th outcomesLine up all 50,000 outcomes low to high — these are the values at the 5%, 25%, 50%, 75% and 95% marks., from 50,000 paths.
| Timeframe | Rare low (5%) | 25% | Middle | 75% | Rare high (95%) |
|---|
What drives the odds
50,000 paths, carry-anchored: the drift is the 3M EIBOR (3.93%) with no ex-dividend date inside the window (the FY25 distribution was paid in Q1; the next lands ~Q1-27), so the median drifts gently up; the spread is the share’s own gap-aware volatility (annualized ~34%) after a provisional single-name UAE calibration — honestly flagged as provisional until a multi-name ADX panel exists. The forces the study reasons through are the Fed/CBUAE rate path, Abu Dhabi property & Aldar’s tape, IHC deal flow and the fair-value-gain engine, NMDC’s normalization, the DMTT tax glide, oil and the fiscal pulse, float/index mechanics — plus event forces: the Q2 results and the missing attributable split, a related-party transaction, a Fed surprise, buyback/distribution news, and the war regime itself. One honest caveat, stated in the study twice: the width was fitted through 3 Jul — a pre-re-escalation regime — so read the downside percentiles as floors on risk, not ceilings. Details in the methodology.
Peer set & risks
Where Alpha Dhabi sits in its complex
Alpha Dhabi is Abu Dhabi’s second-largest listed investment holding — the mid-layer of the IHC ecosystem, above its own listed stakes and below the parent. Its moat is positional: proximity to the state-linked project pipeline, first-call capital, and board control of franchise assets. This is a structural map, not a price table.
| Layer / lens | Alpha Dhabi | Context |
|---|---|---|
| Marked NAV vs price | Spot ~+10% ABOVE par NAV (7.44) | GCC/EM holdcos usually trade at a 10–25% discount |
| Largest stake — Aldar (31.63%) | AED 20.5 bn · 8.6× trailing | Cheaper bought directly than through the wrapper (10.3×) |
| NMDC Group (76.68%) | AED 14.4 bn · 5.2× | Q1-26 EPS halved — the fragile earnings line |
| PureHealth (35.06%) · NCTH (73.73%) | AED 8.6 bn · 2.4 bn | 12.3× associate · thin-float hotel platform |
| Trojan Construction (51%) | AED 5.2 bn (ADQ mark) | #1 UAE contractor; ALEC (DFM) and Orascom active |
| Parent — IHC 75.76% (anchors ~90.7%) | Free float ~9%, buyback running | IHC itself trades at a large, persistent NAV premium |
The debate is whether the market is right to pay a ~10% premium over marked NAV for the IHC ecosystem’s deal flow and fair-value-gain engine — after two straight years of falling attributable EPS — or whether the price completes its trip toward the marks (6.3–7.4 depending on the discount). Structural map, not advice.
About this series & how we build these
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Full write-up plus the editable Excel model.
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Edition: 10 Jul 2026. Older editions stay in the Library.