Saudi Aramco
Fundamental — what it's worthbottom-up fair value
Built up from an explicit five-year cash-flow forecast, the dividend yield, relative multiples and the reserve base — what is it worth?
Is it cheap or expensive right now?
Latest price vs our fair value. A comparison, not a recommendation.
What it's worth — five lenses
Five independent valuation methods, blended into one weighted central fair value.
| Valuation lens | Per share (SAR) | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| DCF (5-yr FCFF) — primary | 23.47 | 30% |
| Dividend-yield support | 26.09 | 25% |
| Relative multiples | 21.48 | 15% |
| Reserves-NAV / SOTP | 29.63 | 20% |
| Normalized earnings power | 23.24 | 10% |
| Weighted central fair value | 25.04 | −4.6% vs spot |
The five lenses span SAR 21.48 (relative multiples, the floor) to SAR 29.63 (reserves-NAV, the ceiling) and straddle spot — the asset base looks cheap, the earnings multiple looks full. The oil-price path and whether the base dividend stays covered are the swing factors. Full detail and the five lenses are in the study and the open model.
Technical & price structuretrend, momentum, key levels
Trend, momentum and key levels — what is the price doing now?
What the chart says
In plain terms: Saudi Aramco trades a few percent above our weighted central fair value — roughly fairly valued to modestly rich, and priced less as a growth stock than as a sovereign-backed income instrument yielding about 5.2%. It sits on a 247-billion-barrel reserve base at the lowest production cost in the world, but the government owns ~81.5% and takes the great majority of the cash through royalties, tax and the dividend. The bull case (~SAR 31) is an oil re-rating and yield compression while the reserve base is credited in full; the cautious case (~SAR 20) is a sustained oil slide that forces the dividend — already running at essentially 100% of free cash flow — to be rethought. What moves it is the oil-price path and whether that base dividend stays covered.
Key levels
Volatility & where the case breaks
| Typical daily moveRoughly how far the price swings in an average day (based on a measure called ATR). Bigger means choppier. | ~1% |
Monte Carlo — where could the price go?near-term price paths
50,000 simulated futures — near-term price paths, independent of the fundamental value.
The 5th–95th and 25th–75th percentile bands from the 50,000-path simulation. Static and pre-computed — independent of the fundamental levers above.
The exact percentiles
The 5th / 25th / middle / 75th / 95th outcomesLine up all 50,000 outcomes low to high — these are the values at the 5%, 25%, 50%, 75% and 95% marks., from 50,000 paths.
| Timeframe | Rare low (5%) | 25% | Middle | 75% | Rare high (95%) |
|---|
What drives the odds
50,000 paths, 16 forces: the Brent oil path, global oil demand and refining margins, SAMA/Fed rates via the riyal peg, US real rates, TASI flows, the base-dividend anchor and an oil-volatility regime — plus event forces: an OPEC+ decision, a geopolitical oil-supply spike, a global recession, a peg-stability tail, a Vision-2030 catalyst, a facilities attack, a dividend-policy change, an earnings print, and a government-take change. Details in the methodology.
Peer set & risks
Where Saudi Aramco sits in its markets
Aramco is an integrated oil major — upstream, downstream and chemicals — and the world’s largest and lowest-cost crude producer. Peers trade in different currencies and aren’t directly value-comparable, so this is a competitive map, not a price table.
| Arena | Aramco's position | Main rivals |
|---|---|---|
| Global crude production | #1 (~9% of world supply) | ExxonMobil · Chevron · PetroChina |
| Lifting cost / low-cost curve | Lowest (~$3.75/bbl) | far below Western majors |
| Proved reserves | ~247bn boe (decades) | Exxon · Shell · TotalEnergies |
| Downstream & refining | Large, integrated | Shell · TotalEnergies · Reliance |
| Chemicals | Major (via SABIC) | BASF · Dow · SABIC peers |
| Gas (expanding) | Scaling ~+60% by 2030 | QatarEnergy · Shell · Exxon |
The investment debate turns less on any single arena than on the oil-price path and how much of Aramco's vast, low-cost reserve base accrues to the minority shareholder after the state's royalty, tax and dividend claim. Competitive map, not advice.
About this series & how we build these
Want the full study and the spreadsheet?
Full write-up plus the editable Excel model.
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The full study (PDF) and Excel model are available on a computer.
Edition: 1 Jul 2026. Older editions stay in the Library.