What is the fair-value range for Beltone Financial Holding (BTFH)?

testahil publishes a probability distribution of where BTFH could trade over the next 1–3 months — the simulated 5th–95th percentile range and the central 50% — not a single price target or a buy/sell call. The full study and open model show the methodology. This is educational analysis, not investment advice.

How is the BTFH valuation calculated?

The study uses an instrument-appropriate lens — a financial-services sum-of-the-parts on justified price-to-book marks for a holding company — combined with a 50,000-path Monte Carlo simulation that expresses the result as a probability distribution. Every assumption is visible and editable in the free Excel model.

Does testahil recommend buying or selling BTFH?

No. testahil never issues buy, sell, or hold recommendations. It publishes fair-value ranges and probability distributions as educational material, and grades its own forecasts publicly when they resolve.

Is the Beltone Financial Holding model free to download?

Yes. The full BTFH valuation study (Word/PDF) and the open Excel model are free to download, with every assumption editable.

Beltone Financial Holding (BTFH) — worth it?

Fundamental — what it's worthbottom-up fair value

Lens 1 of 3Fundamental analysis — what is it worth?

Built up from projects, cash and earnings — what is it worth?

Is it cheap or expensive right now?

Latest price vs our fair value. A comparison, not a recommendation.

What it's worth

The lenses, side by side; the weighted central value is the anchor.

Lens / part	Per share (EGP)	How it's valued
Egypt NBFI lending platform	EGP 12.8bn	1.6× allocated book
+ Investment Bank platform	EGP 8.6bn	1.9× — brokerage, IB, EGP 49bn AUM
+ Baobab (pan-Africa)	EGP 8.5bn	held at ~cost — related-party mark
+ Capital / VC / other	EGP 2.3bn	0.8× book
Sum-of-the-parts (primary)	2.70	marked book − 10% discount
Equity DCF / FCFE	2.51	the cash test
Normalized 18% ROE	3.62	the ceiling
Fair value (weighted)	2.88	−3% vs latest

Full detail, all lenses, the expert panel and the open model are in the study.

Technical & price structuretrend, momentum, key levels

Lens 2 of 3Technical analysis — what is the chart doing?

Trend, momentum and key levels — what is the price doing now?

Price 50-day MA 200-day MADaily close · last 500 sessions to 1 Jul 2026

What the chart says

In plain terms: Beltone is four platforms in one wrapper — Egypt’s fastest-scaling brokerage and largest non-bank asset manager, a fast-growing NBFI lender, a venture arm, and (from Q1-2026) Baobab, a pan-African microfinance bank bought from its own majority shareholder. Marked platform by platform the parts are worth ~EGP 3.00 a share before any fairness discount; at 2.97 the price pays for nearly all of it. The whole argument is whether the enlarged book lifts its return on equity from ~11% toward 18%.

Key levels

Volatility & where the case breaks

Typical daily moveRoughly how far the price swings in an average day (ATR).	~0.07 (2.4%)
Where our case breaks	below ~1.9

Monte Carlo — where could the price go?near-term price paths

Lens 3 of 3Monte Carlo — where could the price go?

50,000 simulated futures — near-term price paths, independent of the fundamental value.

The 5th–95th and 25th–75th percentile bands from the 50,000-path simulation. Static and pre-computed — independent of the fundamental levers above.

The exact percentiles

The 5th / 25th / middle / 75th / 95th outcomesLine up all 50,000 outcomes low to high — these are the values at the 5%, 25%, 50%, 75% and 95% marks., from 50,000 paths.

Timeframe	Rare low (5%)	25%	Middle	75%	Rare high (95%)

What drives the odds

50,000 paths, 16 forces: the CBE easing cycle (the master variable), the EGP and African currencies, EGX turnover and foreign flows, NBFI credit demand, Baobab integration costs, asset-quality shifts, index flows and the dilution overhang. Details in the methodology.

Peer set & risks

How it compares to the others we cover

"Cheap / expensive" = vs our fair value. Not advice.

About this series & how we build these

Want the full study and the spreadsheet?

Full write-up plus the editable Excel model.

Found a flaw? Attack the model

Open the study (PDF) Open the model (Excel)

The full study (PDF) and Excel model are available on a computer.

Edition: 3 Jul 2026. Older editions stay in the Library.