Cleopatra Hospitals
Fundamental — what it's worthbottom-up fair value
Built up from projects, cash and earnings — what is it worth?
Is it cheap or expensive right now?
Latest price vs our fair value. A comparison, not a recommendation.
What it's worth
The lenses, side by side; the weighted central value is the anchor.
| Lens / part | Per share (EGP) | How it's valued |
|---|---|---|
| DCF — rate path (primary) | 7.17 | FCFF, two-stage Egyptian rate path · 40% |
| Relative multiples (the ceiling) | 13.21 | FY27E parent EPS × justified P/E 15–23× · 25% |
| Normalized earnings | 8.37 | FY26E ex-net-interest parent profit × 15–22× · 20% |
| EV per operational bed | 9.08 | EGP 20–35mn × ~1,320 forward beds · 15% |
| Fair value (weighted) | 9.21 | −44% vs latest · bear 6.51, bull 11.05 |
Full detail, all lenses, the expert panel and the open model are in the study.
Technical & price structuretrend, momentum, key levels
Trend, momentum and key levels — what is the price doing now?
What the chart says
In plain terms: a genuine growth story — bed capacity up 50% by 2027 — priced as if it were already a takeout. The rate-path DCF (EGP 7.17, at Egypt's sourced cost of capital) and the relative/EV-per-bed lenses (EGP 8.37–13.21) disagree by nearly 2× — the market's EGP 16.31 prices something closer to a strategic-review or per-bed transaction outcome than standalone cash-flow generation.
Key levels
Volatility & where the case breaks
| Typical daily moveRoughly how far the price swings in an average day (ATR). | ~0.5 (2.2%) |
| Where our case breaks | below ~7.17 |
Monte Carlo — where could the price go?near-term price paths
50,000 simulated futures — near-term price paths, independent of the fundamental value.
The 5th–95th and 25th–75th percentile bands from the 50,000-path simulation. Static and pre-computed — independent of the fundamental levers above.
The exact percentiles
The 5th / 25th / middle / 75th / 95th outcomesLine up all 50,000 outcomes low to high — these are the values at the 5%, 25%, 50%, 75% and 95% marks., from 50,000 paths.
| Timeframe | Rare low (5%) | 25% | Middle | 75% | Rare high (95%) |
|---|
What drives the odds
50,000 paths, 16 forces: the CBE rate path (25.15% → a norm-built 17.87% terminal), bed-capacity execution (880→1,320 beds by 2027), the ARP/volume ramp across CLHO’s disclosed revenue lines, the working-capital and receivables cycle, and a developing 2026–27 El Niño (96% NOAA probability) that could keep food inflation — and the CBE’s easing path — stuck. Details in the methodology.
Peer set & risks
How it compares to the others we cover
"Cheap / expensive" = vs our fair value. Not advice.
About this series & how we build these
Want the full study and the spreadsheet?
Full write-up plus the editable Excel model.
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The full study (PDF) and Excel model are available on a computer.
Edition: 17 Jun 2026. Older editions stay in the Library.