Dice For Ready-Made Garments (SAE)
Fundamental — what it's worthbottom-up fair value
Built up from projects, cash and earnings — what is it worth?
Is it cheap or expensive right now?
Latest price vs our fair value. A comparison, not a recommendation.
A weighted what-if off the published fair value — not a re-run DCF, and it never touches the Monte Carlo section below. The discount-rate lever dominates by design: at today’s cost of capital this is primarily a rates story, so cotton and the pound move the number far less than the CBE does. That ordering is the finding, not a display quirk.
Technical & price structuretrend, momentum, key levels
Trend, momentum and key levels — what is the price doing now?
What the chart says
In plain terms: at today’s ~23.5% cost of capital the discounted cash flows are worth less than the debt already drawn against them, so the fundamental value sits well below the EGP 1.94 price. The equity is essentially a levered bet on the CBE’s easing cycle — lower rates lift the value fast; a stall leaves it stranded. That’s the bet.
Key levels
Volatility & where the case breaks
| Typical daily moveRoughly how far the price swings in an average day (based on a measure called ATR). Bigger means choppier. | 0.56 |
| Where our case breaks | below 0.59 |
Monte Carlo — where could the price go?near-term price paths
50,000 simulated futures — near-term price paths, independent of the fundamental value.
The full 90-day path, from the same distribution as the odds above. Static — nothing here is adjustable, unlike the levers under Fundamental.
Below EGP 0.59 — the bear-case fundamental value, which assumes rates stay high and margins never recover — the market would be pricing in worse than our most pessimistic case, the point where we’d rebuild the study.
The exact percentiles
The 5th / 25th / middle / 75th / 95th outcomesLine up all 50,000 outcomes low to high — these are the values at the 5%, 25%, 50%, 75% and 95% marks., from 50,000 paths.
| Timeframe | Rare low (5%) | 25% | Middle | 75% | Rare high (95%) |
|---|
What drives the odds
One Monte Carlo model, 50,000 paths, driven by 10 outside forces relevant to a dollar-exporting garment maker: the CBE policy rate, the EGP/USD rate, Egyptian inflation, the global cotton price, US and EU apparel-import demand, US tariff policy on Egyptian textiles, freight and energy costs, regional geopolitics affecting shipping lanes, the domestic minimum-wage / labour-cost path, and consumer spending on the domestic retail book. Full mechanics in the methodology.
Peer set & risks
How it compares to the others we cover
"Cheap / expensive" = vs our fair value. Not advice.
About this series & how we build these
Want the full study and the spreadsheet?
Full write-up plus the editable Excel model.
Found a flaw? Attack the model
The full study (PDF) and Excel model are available on a computer.
Edition: 11 Jun 2026. Older editions stay in the Library.