Edita Food Industries
Fundamental — what it's worthbottom-up fair value
Built up from projects, cash and earnings — what is it worth?
Is it cheap or expensive right now?
Latest price vs our fair value. A comparison, not a recommendation.
What it's worth
The lenses, side by side; the weighted central value is the anchor.
| Lens / part | Per share (EGP) | How it's valued |
|---|---|---|
| FCFF DCF (primary) | 29.74 | 5-yr FCFF, WACC 20.7%, terminal g 13.5% |
| + Segment gross-profit build | 30.09 | FY26E segment GP × 4.4× EV/GP + net cash |
| + Relative multiples | 29.09 | 11.5× FY26E EPS · 7.0× EV/EBITDA |
| + Normalized earnings power | 26.70 | 11% mid-cycle margin × 12.5× justified P/E |
| + DDM (sanity) | 16.51 | 45% payout at a 21.4% cost of equity |
| Fair value (weighted) | 27.68 | +1% vs latest |
Full detail, all lenses, the expert panel and the open model are in the study.
Technical & price structuretrend, momentum, key levels
Trend, momentum and key levels — what is the price doing now?
What the chart says
In plain terms: Edita is Egypt’s snack-shelf machine — Molto croissants, Todo cakes, Bake Rolz, Freska and the HoHos/Twinkies/Tiger Tail brands it now owns across all of Africa, sold billions of packs a year through the deepest traditional-trade network on the exchange. The devaluation story is already paid for: revenue near-tripled since 2022, the balance sheet turned net-cash, and the shares six-folded. At 27.34 versus a weighted fair value of 27.68 the price is about right — the whole argument from here is whether the 34–35% gross margin survives the next move in the pound.
Key levels
Volatility & where the case breaks
| Typical daily moveRoughly how far the price swings in an average day (ATR). | ~0.71 (2.6%) |
| Where our case breaks | below ~16.4 |
Monte Carlo — where could the price go?near-term price paths
50,000 simulated futures — near-term price paths, independent of the fundamental value.
The 5th–95th and 25th–75th percentile bands from the 50,000-path simulation. Static and pre-computed — independent of the fundamental levers above.
The exact percentiles
The 5th / 25th / middle / 75th / 95th outcomesLine up all 50,000 outcomes low to high — these are the values at the 5%, 25%, 50%, 75% and 95% marks., from 50,000 paths.
| Timeframe | Rare low (5%) | 25% | Middle | 75% | Rare high (95%) |
|---|
What drives the odds
50,000 paths, 16 forces: the pound and the CBE easing cycle (the master variables), soft-commodity input costs, consumer purchasing power and the price-point ladder, capacity ramp-up and utilization, export and HTT-Africa traction, dividend policy and index flows. Details in the methodology.
Peer set & risks
How it compares to the others we cover
"Cheap / expensive" = vs our fair value. Not advice.
About this series & how we build these
Want the full study and the spreadsheet?
Full write-up plus the editable Excel model.
Found a flaw? Attack the model
The full study (PDF) and Excel model are available on a computer.
Edition: 4 Jul 2026. Older editions stay in the Library.