What is the fair-value range for e-finance (EFIH)?

testahil publishes a probability distribution of where EFIH could trade over the next 1–3 months — the simulated 5th–95th percentile range and the central 50% — not a single price target or a buy/sell call. The full study and open model show the methodology. This is educational analysis, not investment advice.

How is the EFIH valuation calculated?

The study uses an instrument-appropriate lens — a sum-of-the-parts / RNAV build for a real-estate developer — combined with a 50,000-path Monte Carlo simulation that expresses the result as a probability distribution. Every assumption is visible and editable in the free Excel model.

Does testahil recommend buying or selling EFIH?

No. testahil never issues buy, sell, or hold recommendations. It publishes fair-value ranges and probability distributions as educational material, and grades its own forecasts publicly when they resolve.

Is the e-finance for Digital & Financial Investments model free to download?

Yes. The full EFIH valuation study (Word/PDF) and the open Excel model are free to download, with every assumption editable.

e-finance (EFIH) — is the stock worth it?

Fundamental — what it's worthbottom-up fair value

Lens 1 of 3Fundamental analysis — what is it worth?

Built up from projects, cash and earnings — what is it worth?

Is it cheap or expensive right now?

Latest price vs our fair value. A comparison, not a recommendation.

Technical & price structuretrend, momentum, key levels

Lens 2 of 3Technical analysis — what is the chart doing?

Trend, momentum and key levels — what is the price doing now?

Price 50-day MA 200-day MA Daily close · last 500 sessions to 01 Jul 2026

What the chart says

In plain terms: the intrinsic DCF/SOTP value is ~EGP 11–12 a share. The market pays ~EGP 21 for continued 30% growth and a falling EGP rate path. That’s the bet.

Key levels

Volatility & where the case breaks

Typical daily moveRoughly how far the price swings in an average day (based on a measure called ATR). Bigger means choppier.	0.56
Where our case breaks	below 10.20

Monte Carlo — where could the price go?near-term price paths

Lens 3 of 3Monte Carlo — where could the price go?

50,000 simulated futures — near-term price paths, independent of the fundamental value.

The 5th–95th and 25th–75th percentile bands from the 50,000-path simulation. Static and pre-computed — independent of the fundamental levers above.

Below EGP 10.20 — the bear-case value, which assumes digitisation growth stalls and the EGP rate path stays adverse — the market would be pricing in worse than our most pessimistic case, the point where we’d rebuild the study.

The exact percentiles

The 5th / 25th / middle / 75th / 95th outcomesLine up all 50,000 outcomes low to high — these are the values at the 5%, 25%, 50%, 75% and 95% marks., from 50,000 paths.

Timeframe	Rare low (5%)	25%	Middle	75%	Rare high (95%)

What drives the odds

One Monte Carlo model, 50,000 paths, driven by 10 outside forces: the EGP interest-rate path, digitisation throughput, cloud demand, competitive pressure, cost inflation, a regulatory/fee shock, new government mandates, tourism volumes, a CBE rate-cut surprise, and index flows. Full mechanics in the methodology.

Peer set & risks

How it compares to the others we cover

"Cheap / expensive" = vs our fair value. Not advice.

About this series & how we build these

Want the full study and the spreadsheet?

Full write-up plus the editable Excel model.

Found a flaw? Attack the model

Open the study (PDF) Open the model (Excel)

The full study (PDF) and Excel model are available on a computer.

Edition: 11 Jun 2026. Older editions stay in the Library.