What is the fair-value range for Egypt Aluminum (EGAL)?

testahil publishes a probability distribution of where EGAL could trade over the next 1–3 months — the simulated 5th–95th percentile range and the central 50% — not a single price target or a buy/sell call. The full study and open model show the methodology. This is educational analysis, not investment advice.

How is the EGAL valuation calculated?

The study uses an instrument-appropriate lens — a consolidated FCFF discounted cash flow for Egypt's sole primary-aluminium producer, cross-checked on replacement cost per tonne of capacity, global smelter multiples and normalized mid-cycle earnings — combined with a 50,000-path Monte Carlo simulation that expresses the result as a probability distribution. Every assumption is visible and editable in the free Excel model.

Does testahil recommend buying or selling EGAL?

No. testahil never issues buy, sell, or hold recommendations. It publishes fair-value ranges and probability distributions as educational material, and grades its own forecasts publicly when they resolve.

Is the Egypt Aluminum model free to download?

Yes. The full EGAL valuation study (Word/PDF) and the open Excel model are free to download, with every assumption editable.

Egypt Aluminum (EGAL) — is the stock worth it?

Fundamental — what it's worthbottom-up fair value

Lens 1 of 3Fundamental analysis — what is it worth?

Built up from projects, cash and earnings — what is it worth?

Is it cheap or expensive right now?

Latest price vs our fair value. A comparison, not a recommendation.

What it's worth

The lenses, side by side; the weighted central value is the anchor.

Lens / part	Per share (EGP)	How it's valued
Discounted cash flow (primary)	268	5-yr FCFF + terminal · 20% WACC, 12% g
Normalized earnings power	265	EGP 11.5bn mid-cycle profit × 9.5×
Relative multiples	235	EGP 13.5bn EBITDA × 6.5× EV/EBITDA + cash
Replacement cost / EV per tonne	210	320 kt × US$5,500/t, aged, + net cash
Fair value (weighted 35/25/25/15)	250	−12% vs latest

Full detail, all lenses, the expert panel and the open model are in the study.

Technical & price structuretrend, momentum, key levels

Lens 2 of 3Technical analysis — what is the chart doing?

Trend, momentum and key levels — what is the price doing now?

Price 50-day MA 200-day MADaily close · last 500 sessions to 1 Jul 2026

What the chart says

In plain terms: Egypt Aluminum is the country’s only primary-aluminium smelter — Nag Hammadi turns an administered electricity price into LME dollars, carries ~EGP 9bn of net cash, and in May 2026 signed a US$900m Trafigura partnership to roughly double capacity toward ~600 kt. Marked lens by lens the business is worth ~EGP 250 a share; at 286 the price pre-pays part of that doubling and a record FY25/26 close. The whole argument is whether the power contract holds and the financing actually signs.

Key levels

Volatility & where the case breaks

Typical daily moveRoughly how far the price swings in an average day (ATR).	~8.0 (2.8%)
Where our case breaks	below ~183

Monte Carlo — where could the price go?near-term price paths

Lens 3 of 3Monte Carlo — where could the price go?

50,000 simulated futures — near-term price paths, independent of the fundamental value.

The 5th–95th and 25th–75th percentile bands from the 50,000-path simulation. Static and pre-computed — independent of the fundamental levers above.

The exact percentiles

The 5th / 25th / middle / 75th / 95th outcomesLine up all 50,000 outcomes low to high — these are the values at the 5%, 25%, 50%, 75% and 95% marks., from 50,000 paths.

Timeframe	Rare low (5%)	25%	Middle	75%	Rare high (95%)

What drives the odds

50,000 paths, 16 forces: the stock\'s own calibrated secular drift (the master variable), the LME aluminium price, the EGP, the industrial electricity tariff, EGX flows, alumina costs, CBAM, the Trafigura financing, the FY25/26 results and dividend, a possible MIH stake-sale, and global risk appetite. Details in the methodology.

Peer set & risks

How it compares to the others we cover

"Cheap / expensive" = vs our fair value. Not advice.

About this series & how we build these

Want the full study and the spreadsheet?

Full write-up plus the editable Excel model.

Found a flaw? Attack the model

Open the study (PDF) Open the model (Excel)

The full study (PDF) and Excel model are available on a computer.

Edition: 3 Jul 2026. Older editions stay in the Library.