Emaar Properties PJSC
Fundamental — what it's worthbottom-up fair value
Built up from the listed Emaar Development and Emaar Misr stakes, the recurring mall & hotel portfolio, international development and net cash — what is it worth?
Is it cheap or expensive right now?
Latest price vs our fair value. A comparison, not a recommendation.
What it's worth — five lenses
Five independent valuation methods, blended into one weighted central fair value.
| Valuation lens | Per share (AED) | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Sum-of-the-parts / RNAV — base (primary) | 14.12 | 35% |
| Going-concern DCF (FCFF) | 14.74 | 20% |
| Relative multiples (blended) | 15.53 | 15% |
| Normalized earnings power | 15.27 | 30% |
| Weighted central fair value | 14.80 | +22% vs spot |
The RNAV alone spans a wide range — a pre-discount NAV near AED 17.6, an RNAV base of AED 14.12 at a 20% discount, up to ~AED 17.27 if the discount compresses to 10%. The recurring EV/EBITDA multiple and the NAV/conglomerate discount are the swing factors. Full detail and the four lenses are in the study and the open model.
Technical & price structuretrend, momentum, key levels
Trend, momentum and key levels — what is the price doing now?
What the chart says
In plain terms: Emaar trades about 22% below our weighted central fair value — undervalued across every lens, though the tape has corrected ~29% and is consolidating. It is really a developer-holding-company: a listed build-to-sell business (Emaar Development, ~85% owned), a recurring mall-and-hotel portfolio anchored by the world’s most-visited Dubai Mall, an Egyptian arm (Emaar Misr, ~86%), international development, and ~AED 25bn of net cash. Record 2025 results — AED 80.4bn of sales, a AED 155bn backlog — yet the whole trades at a ~31% discount to the sum of its parts (a gross NAV near AED 17.6). The bull case (~AED 18.75) is that the discount compresses toward ~10% as the recurring portfolio is crystallised and a supportive anchor pushes capital return; the cautious case (~AED 11.08) is the discount staying wide as the Dubai cycle rolls over. What moves it is the multiple the market pays for the recurring portfolio and the direction of that NAV discount.
Key levels
Volatility & where the case breaks
| Typical daily moveRoughly how far the price swings in an average day (based on a measure called ATR). Bigger means choppier. | ~3.3% |
Monte Carlo — where could the price go?near-term price paths
50,000 simulated futures — near-term price paths, independent of the fundamental value.
The 5th–95th and 25th–75th percentile bands from the 50,000-path simulation. Static and pre-computed — independent of the fundamental levers above.
The exact percentiles
The 5th / 25th / middle / 75th / 95th outcomesLine up all 50,000 outcomes low to high — these are the values at the 5%, 25%, 50%, 75% and 95% marks., from 50,000 paths.
| Timeframe | Rare low (5%) | 25% | Middle | 75% | Rare high (95%) |
|---|
What drives the odds
50,000 paths, 16 forces: US/Fed rates via the dirham peg, Dubai residential & off-plan absorption, DFM / foreign-flows beta, oil / GCC liquidity, population & golden-visa demand, the recurring retail-and-tourism trajectory and construction cost — plus event forces: backlog conversion / strong sales, Dubai-cycle re-rating / discount compression, a recurring-portfolio crystallisation, a Dubai-Holding buyback, a two-sided earnings surprise, a Dubai property correction, a Fed higher-for-longer shock, an Egypt macro/FX shock, and a regional risk-off. Details in the methodology.
Peer set & risks
Where Emaar Properties sits in its markets
Emaar is really a developer-holding-company spanning several arenas, and its position differs in each. Rivals trade in different currencies and aren't directly value-comparable, so this is a competitive map, not a price table.
| Arena | Emaar's position | Main rivals |
|---|---|---|
| Dubai master-developer (build-to-sell) | #1 — dominant | Aldar · DAMAC · Nakheel · Meraas |
| Prime Dubai retail (recurring) | #1 (Dubai Mall) | Majid Al Futtaim · Nakheel malls |
| UAE hospitality & leasing | Large, integrated | Aldar · MAF · independents |
| Egypt development (Emaar Misr) | Top-tier premium | TMG · SODIC · PHD · Mountain View |
| International development | Selective (India, KSA) | local developers per market |
| Listed subsidiaries | Emaar Development · Emaar Misr | — separately listed stakes |
The investment debate turns less on any single arena than on the multiple the market pays for the recurring portfolio and the NAV/conglomerate discount — how much of the marked sum-of-the-parts the market credits. Competitive map, not advice.
About this series & how we build these
Want the full study and the spreadsheet?
Full write-up plus the editable Excel model.
Found a flaw? Attack the model
The full study (PDF) and Excel model are available on a computer.
Edition: 01 Jul 2026. Older editions stay in the Library.