Emaar Development PJSC
Fundamental — what it's worthbottom-up fair value
Built up from net cash, the present value of the roughly AED 125bn sold backlog and a haircut land bank — with no terminal value on the finite build-to-sell development legs — what is it worth?
Is it cheap or expensive right now?
Latest price vs our fair value. A comparison, not a recommendation.
What it's worth — four lenses
Four independent valuation methods, blended into one weighted central fair value.
| Valuation lens | Per share (AED) | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| RNAV / split sum-of-the-parts (primary) | 17.56 | 40% |
| Going-concern DCF (FCFF, exit-multiple terminal) | 18.43 | 20% |
| Relative multiples (blended, floor) | 15.75 | 15% |
| Property-cycle earnings | 16.88 | 25% |
| Weighted central fair value | 17.29 | +21% vs spot |
The RNAV builds from ~AED 20bn of net cash plus the present value of the ~AED 125bn sold backlog and a haircut land bank, less overhead — with no terminal value on the finite development legs. The swing factors are the Dubai property cycle, the sustainable development margin and the net-cash mark. A naive Gordon-perpetuity DCF would imply ~AED 27 (disclosed, not used). Full detail and the four lenses are in the study and the open model.
Technical & price structuretrend, momentum, key levels
Trend, momentum and key levels — what is the price doing now?
What the chart says
In plain terms: EMAARDEV trades about 21% below our weighted central fair value — modestly-to-clearly undervalued, though the tape has corrected ~30% from its AED 20 high and is consolidating. It is a near-pure Dubai build-to-sell developer, ~85% owned by parent Emaar Properties — the malls and hotels sit in the parent, not here. Record FY2025 — AED 71.1bn of sales at a ~56% pre-tax margin, an AED 125bn sold backlog, ~AED 20bn of net cash and a 100%-of-par dividend — with the value resting on an RNAV that adds net cash to the present value of that backlog and a haircut land bank, carrying no terminal value on the finite development legs. The bull case (~AED 22.76) is the Dubai cycle holding and the development margin normalising gently; the cautious case (~AED 12.88) is the 2026-27 supply wave arriving and the margin normalising faster than assumed. What moves it is the Dubai property cycle, the sustainable development margin and the net-cash mark — not a recurring-portfolio multiple.
Key levels
Volatility & where the case breaks
| Typical daily moveRoughly how far the price swings in an average day (based on a measure called ATR). Bigger means choppier. | ~2.3% |
Monte Carlo — where could the price go?near-term price paths
50,000 simulated futures — near-term price paths, independent of the fundamental value.
The 5th–95th and 25th–75th percentile bands from the 50,000-path simulation. Static and pre-computed — independent of the fundamental levers above.
The exact percentiles
The 5th / 25th / middle / 75th / 95th outcomesLine up all 50,000 outcomes low to high — these are the values at the 5%, 25%, 50%, 75% and 95% marks., from 50,000 paths.
| Timeframe | Rare low (5%) | 25% | Middle | 75% | Rare high (95%) |
|---|
What drives the odds
50,000 paths, 16 forces: US/Fed rates via the dirham peg, Dubai residential & off-plan absorption, DFM / foreign-flows beta, oil / GCC liquidity, population & golden-visa demand, the 2026-27 supply / handover pipeline and construction cost / development margin — plus event forces: Q1-2026 results, a new master-plan launch / sell-out, strong backlog conversion, a Dubai supply / handover signal, a dividend / capital-return surprise, a land-acquisition / pipeline add, a rating action, a Dubai property correction, a Fed higher-for-longer shock, a regional risk-off, and index / flow rebalancing. Details in the methodology.
Peer set & risks
Where Emaar Development sits in its markets
EMAARDEV is a near-pure Dubai build-to-sell developer — the malls and hotels sit in the parent, Emaar Properties. Rivals trade in different currencies and aren't directly value-comparable, so this is a competitive map, not a price table.
| Arena | Emaar's position | Main rivals |
|---|---|---|
| Dubai master-developer (build-to-sell) | #1 — dominant | Aldar · DAMAC · Nakheel · Meraas |
| Off-plan launches & absorption | Market leader | DAMAC · Nakheel · Sobha |
| Dubai land bank | ~305m sqft | Nakheel · Meraas · Dubai Holding |
| Sold backlog / pipeline | ~AED 125bn | Aldar · DAMAC |
| Balance sheet | ~AED 20bn net cash | most peers carry net debt |
| Parent / ownership | ~85% Emaar Properties | — malls & hotels held in parent |
The investment debate turns on the Dubai property cycle, the sustainable development margin and the pace of backlog conversion — not a recurring-portfolio multiple. Competitive map, not advice.
About this series & how we build these
Want the full study and the spreadsheet?
Full write-up plus the editable Excel model.
Found a flaw? Attack the model
The full study (PDF) and Excel model are available on a computer.
Edition: 01 Jul 2026. Older editions stay in the Library.