Telecom Egypt
Fundamental — what it's worthbottom-up fair value
Built up from projects, cash and earnings — what is it worth?
Is it cheap or expensive right now?
Latest price vs our fair value. A comparison, not a recommendation.
What it's worth
The lenses, side by side; the weighted central value is the anchor.
| Lens / part | Per share (EGP) | How it's valued |
|---|---|---|
| Core telecom (fixed, WE mobile, subsea) | EGP 171.0bn | 3.25× 2026E EBITDA of 52.6 |
| + Vodafone Egypt, 45% | EGP 118.4bn | 8.0× earnings — vs the 2022 Vodacom deal at ~110 |
| + Other (data-hub JV, land) | EGP 6.0bn | judgment residual |
| − Net debt | (EGP 58bn) | Q1-26 basis; 1.3× EBITDA |
| Sum-of-the-parts (primary) | 118 | EGP 139.0/sh marked − 15% discount |
| Core-FCFF DCF + stake | 107 | the cash test — 23% WACC, 11% growth |
| Relative multiples | 103 | the floor — 8× blended EPS |
| Normalized earnings | 134 | the ceiling — EGP 30bn mid-cycle × 8.5× |
| Fair value (weighted) | 118 | +27% vs latest |
Full detail, all lenses, the expert panel and the open model are in the study.
Technical & price structuretrend, momentum, key levels
Trend, momentum and key levels — what is the price doing now?
What the chart says
In plain terms: Telecom Egypt is the country’s fixed-line and fibre incumbent, the operator of the Suez subsea-cable corridor, the fourth mobile network (WE) — and the owner of 45% of Vodafone Egypt, whose profit contribution grew 71% last year. Marked part by part the pieces are worth ~EGP 139 a share before any discount; at 92.61 the market pays a ~33% discount to that sum. The whole argument is whether an excellent 2025 — revenue +31%, margin 45%, leverage down to 1.3× — plus approved 13–15% tariff rises finally shrink the wrapper discount toward the 15% we think is fair.
Key levels
Volatility & where the case breaks
| Typical daily moveRoughly how far the price swings in an average day (ATR). | ~2.4 (2.6%) |
| Where our case breaks | below ~80 |
Monte Carlo — where could the price go?near-term price paths
50,000 simulated futures — near-term price paths, independent of the fundamental value.
The 5th–95th and 25th–75th percentile bands from the 50,000-path simulation. Static and pre-computed — independent of the fundamental levers above.
The exact percentiles
The 5th / 25th / middle / 75th / 95th outcomesLine up all 50,000 outcomes low to high — these are the values at the 5%, 25%, 50%, 75% and 95% marks., from 50,000 paths.
| Timeframe | Rare low (5%) | 25% | Middle | 75% | Rare high (95%) |
|---|
What drives the odds
50,000 paths, 16 forces: the EGX secular drift this name is calibrated to, the CBE easing cycle, the EGP (USD-linked wholesale revenue against FX losses), the NTRA tariff round, data demand, Vodafone Egypt momentum, capex intensity, the government-placement overhang, Red Sea subsea risk and index flows. Details in the methodology.
Peer set & risks
How it compares to the others we cover
"Cheap / expensive" = vs our fair value. Not advice.
About this series & how we build these
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Edition: 3 Jul 2026. Older editions stay in the Library.