eXtra United Electronics
Fundamental — what it's worthbottom-up fair value
Built up split-legs — a retail cash-flow (DCF) valuation plus the captive consumer-finance book — and cross-checked against relative multiples — what is it worth?
Is it cheap or expensive right now?
Latest price vs our fair value. A comparison, not a recommendation.
What it's worth — the lenses
Independent valuation methods, blended into one weighted central fair value.
| Valuation lens | Per share (SAR) | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Split-legs sum-of-the-parts — primary | 90 | 50% |
| · Retail operating-co DCF (net-cash) | 65 | — |
| · Tasheel — captive finance (68.75%) | 25 | — |
| Relative multiples (P/E 12×) | 75 | 25% |
| Monte-Carlo — 3-month median | 68 | 25% |
| Weighted central fair value | 81 | +19% vs spot |
The lenses span SAR 66 (weighted cautious) to SAR 92 (weighted bull). The sum-of-the-parts is the primary read — a net-cash retail DCF plus the captive consumer-finance book taken at eXtra's 68.75% — and the whole gap to spot turns on the retail discount rate (a short-window beta of 0.55 vs a conservative 0.80) and the multiple placed on Tasheel. Full detail is in the study and the open model.
Technical & price structuretrend, momentum, key levels
Trend, momentum and key levels — what is the price doing now?
What the chart says
In plain terms: eXtra is two businesses under one listing, so we value them separately and add them. The retail arm — Saudi Arabia's largest electronics and appliances chain — is thin-margin but highly cash-generative and net-cash; on its own cash flow (DCF) it is worth about SAR 65 a share. Tasheel, the 68.75%-owned captive lender that finances eXtra's own big-ticket sales, is worth about SAR 25 a share on its equity book — and though it is only ~7% of revenue it earns close to half of group profit, which is exactly why a single blended multiple misprices the whole. Add the legs and the sum-of-the-parts is ~SAR 90; a relative P/E cross-check sits at ~SAR 75; the weighted central is ~SAR 81, about 19% above a spot that has fallen to a 52-week low (RSI 27, a ~40% P/E discount to peer Jarir). The swing factors are the retail discount rate (a short-window beta of 0.55 versus a conservative 0.80) and the multiple on the finance book — and a well-covered ~7% dividend pays you to wait while the argument resolves.
Key levels
Volatility & where the case breaks
| Typical daily moveRoughly how far the price swings in an average day (based on a measure called ATR). Bigger means choppier. | ~2.0% |
Monte Carlo — where could the price go?near-term price paths
50,000 simulated futures — near-term price paths, independent of the fundamental value.
The 5th–95th and 25th–75th percentile bands from the 50,000-path simulation. Static and pre-computed — independent of the fundamental levers above.
The exact percentiles
The 5th / 25th / middle / 75th / 95th outcomesLine up all 50,000 outcomes low to high — these are the values at the 5%, 25%, 50%, 75% and 95% marks., from 50,000 paths.
| Timeframe | Rare low (5%) | 25% | Middle | 75% | Rare high (95%) |
|---|
What drives the odds
50,000 paths, carry-anchored: the drift is the SAMA/Fed rate path against eXtra's ~7% dividend yield (the two are close, so the median is an explained flat), with the spread set by the Saudi-panel-fitted regime width. The forces the study reasons through are the rate path (financed demand + Tasheel's funding spread), non-oil GDP & Vision-2030 consumption, consumer-finance provisioning & regulation, e-commerce competition, the dividend signal, foreign flows and a momentum/mean-reversion tilt — plus event forces: a quarterly earnings surprise, a SAMA policy surprise, a dividend declaration, a provisioning/regulatory change and a regional event. Details in the methodology.
Peer set & risks
Where eXtra sits in its markets
eXtra is Saudi Arabia's largest organised electronics & appliances retailer, defended by breadth, omnichannel and — decisively — embedded finance: by lending to its own big-ticket buyers through Tasheel it captures a high-return spread that pure retailers and online marketplaces cannot. This is a competitive map, not a price table.
| Arena | eXtra's position | Main rivals |
|---|---|---|
| Electronics & appliances retail | Category leader (KSA) | Jarir · online (noon, Amazon.sa) |
| Embedded consumer finance | Yes — Tasheel (68.75%) | Jarir limited · marketplaces none |
| Trailing P/E | ~11× (at a 52-wk low) | Jarir ~18.5× — a ~40% discount |
| Dividend yield | ~6.9% (payout ~76%) | Jarir ~5.4% |
| Blended net margin | ~7% (thin retail + finance spread) | Jarir ~9% (richer mix) |
| Finance share of profit | ~half of group NI on ~7% of revenue | structural differentiator |
The debate is whether the market is right to price eXtra as a plain cyclical retailer at ~11× — giving no credit to the captive lender — or whether the split-legs value (retail DCF + Tasheel) near ~SAR 90 is closer to the truth. Competitive map, not advice.
About this series & how we build these
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Full write-up plus the editable Excel model.
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Edition: 09 Jul 2026. Older editions stay in the Library.