GB Corp (Ghabbour)
Fundamental — what it's worthbottom-up fair value
Built up from projects, cash and earnings — what is it worth?
Is it cheap or expensive right now?
Latest price vs our fair value. A comparison, not a recommendation.
Technical & price structuretrend, momentum, key levels
Trend, momentum and key levels — what is the price doing now?
What the chart says
In plain terms: GB Corp confirmed in writing on 9 June 2026 that it owns 41.61% of MNT-Halan. Taken at the price of that company's latest funding round, that stake alone is worth roughly EGP 23 a share — worth about EGP 33 including the lending arm — which would leave almost nothing priced in for the car business itself. That's not a mistake in the numbers; it's a real question about whether the market trusts a private fintech's funding-round price as much as this study does. If you think the market's skepticism is fair, the car business plus lender alone is worth close to today's price. If you think the market hasn't caught up, there's real upside here.
Key levels
Volatility & where the case breaks
| Typical daily moveRoughly how far the price swings in an average day (based on a measure called ATR). Bigger means choppier. | 1.28 |
| Where our case breaks | below 24.3 |
Monte Carlo — where could the price go?near-term price paths
50,000 simulated futures — near-term price paths, independent of the fundamental value.
The 5th–95th and 25th–75th percentile bands from the 50,000-path simulation. Static and pre-computed — independent of the fundamental levers above.
Below 24.3 the market would be paying less than eight times this year's earnings with the MNT-Halan stake thrown in free — the point where we'd rebuild the study.
The exact percentiles
The 5th / 25th / middle / 75th / 95th outcomesLine up all 50,000 outcomes low to high — these are the values at the 5%, 25%, 50%, 75% and 95% marks., from 50,000 paths.
| Timeframe | Rare low (5%) | 25% | Middle | 75% | Rare high (95%) |
|---|
What drives the odds
One Monte Carlo model, 50,000 paths, driven by 16 outside forces: the calibrated secular EGX-repricing drift (the calibration back-test-passed), Egyptian car demand, the CBE rate path, the EGP/USD rate, the Iraq/Jordan conflict, Chinese competition and grey imports, the Sadat localization ramp, lending-book funding costs — plus nine discrete events led by 2Q26 results (11 Aug), an MNT-Halan second closing, CBE cuts, a regional escalation, BYD's entry pricing and a devaluation tail. Full mechanics in the methodology.
Peer set & risks
How it compares to the others we cover
"Cheap / expensive" = vs our fair value. Not advice.
About this series & how we build these
Want the full study and the spreadsheet?
Full write-up plus the editable Excel model.
Found a flaw? Attack the model
The full study (PDF) and Excel model are available on a computer.
Edition: 8 Jul 2026. Older editions stay in the Library.