What is the fair-value range for Heliopolis Housing (HELI)?

testahil publishes a probability distribution of where HELI could trade over the next 1–3 months — the simulated 5th–95th percentile range and the central 50% — not a single price target or a buy/sell call. The full study and open model show the methodology. This is educational analysis, not investment advice.

How is the HELI valuation calculated?

The study uses an instrument-appropriate lens — a sum-of-the-parts / RNAV build on the New Heliopolis land bank and its signed partnership contracts — combined with a 50,000-path Monte Carlo simulation that expresses the result as a probability distribution. Every assumption is visible and editable in the free Excel model.

Does testahil recommend buying or selling HELI?

No. testahil never issues buy, sell, or hold recommendations. It publishes fair-value ranges and probability distributions as educational material, and grades its own forecasts publicly when they resolve.

Is the Heliopolis Housing model free to download?

Yes. The full HELI valuation study (Word/PDF) and the open Excel model are free to download, with every assumption editable.

Heliopolis Housing (HELI) — is the stock worth it?

Fundamental — what it's worthbottom-up fair value

Lens 1 of 3Fundamental analysis — what is it worth?

Built up from projects, cash and earnings — what is it worth?

Is it cheap or expensive right now?

Latest price vs our fair value. A comparison, not a recommendation.

Technical & price structuretrend, momentum, key levels

Lens 2 of 3Technical analysis — what is the chart doing?

Trend, momentum and key levels — what is the price doing now?

Price 50-day MA 200-day MA Daily close · last 500 sessions to 1 Jul 2026

What the chart says

In plain terms: at EGP 6.43 the market pays about half of what the marked land bank and the signed partnership contracts are worth (~EGP 8.30). The bet is that those contracts — Madinet Masr, G Developments, Middle East — pay on schedule under a 72% state owner.

Key levels

Volatility & where the case breaks

Typical daily moveRoughly how far the price swings in an average day (based on a measure called ATR). Bigger means choppier.	0.14
Where our case breaks	below 5.00

Monte Carlo — where could the price go?near-term price paths

Lens 3 of 3Monte Carlo — where could the price go?

50,000 simulated futures — near-term price paths, independent of the fundamental value.

The 5th–95th and 25th–75th percentile bands from the 50,000-path simulation. Static and pre-computed — independent of the fundamental levers above.

Below 5.00 the market would be paying less than even the "contracts never pay" case — the point where we'd rebuild the study.

The exact percentiles

The 5th / 25th / middle / 75th / 95th outcomesLine up all 50,000 outcomes low to high — these are the values at the 5%, 25%, 50%, 75% and 95% marks., from 50,000 paths.

Timeframe	Rare low (5%)	25%	Middle	75%	Rare high (95%)

What drives the odds

One Monte Carlo model, 50,000 paths, driven by 16 forces: the central-bank rate, the EGP/USD rate, inflation, foreign money flows, oil, east-Cairo absorption, build-cost, plus nine event forces — H1 results, new partnership awards, a state stake-sale step, land auctions, dividends, regional risk, a devaluation step, a title/NUCA dispute and partner slippage. Full mechanics in the methodology.

Peer set & risks

How it compares to the others we cover

"Cheap / expensive" = vs our fair value. Not advice.

About this series & how we build these

Want the full study and the spreadsheet?

Full write-up plus the editable Excel model.

Found a flaw? Attack the model

Open the study (PDF) Open the model (Excel)

The full study (PDF) and Excel model are available on a computer.

Edition: 3 Jul 2026. Older editions stay in the Library.

Heliopolis Company for Housing & Development