Industries Qatar
Fundamental — what it's worthbottom-up fair value
Built up from an explicit five-year cash-flow forecast, the dividend yield, relative multiples and the reserve base — what is it worth?
Is it cheap or expensive right now?
Latest price vs our fair value. A comparison, not a recommendation.
What it's worth — five lenses
Five independent valuation methods, blended into one weighted central fair value.
| Valuation lens | Per share (QAR) | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Sum-of-the-parts — primary | 10.38 | 35% |
| Consolidated DCF (5-yr FCFF) | 11.0 | 20% |
| Relative multiples | 11.02 | 15% |
| Normalized earnings power | 11.02 | 15% |
| Dividend discount | 11.07 | 15% |
| Weighted central fair value | 10.9 | −2% vs spot |
The five lenses cluster tightly: the sum-of-the-parts (QAR 10.38) is the conservative floor and the DCF (QAR 11.0–11.4) the ceiling, with relative, normalized and dividend-discount reads around QAR 11. Each turns on one question — whether the petrochemical leg's margin normalises from its early-2026 trough. Full detail and the five lenses are in the study and the open model.
Technical & price structuretrend, momentum, key levels
Trend, momentum and key levels — what is the price doing now?
What the chart says
In plain terms: Industries Qatar trades within about 2% of our weighted central fair value — on the parts, the shares screen fairly valued rather than cheap or dear. A holding-company sum-of-the-parts (QAFCO fertilizers, the QAPCO/QAFAC petrochemicals stakes and Qatar Steel), valued on normalized mid-cycle earnings plus about QAR 8.5bn of net cash less a small holdco discount, lands near QAR 10.4; a consolidated DCF near QAR 11.0–11.4; relative multiples and normalized earnings around QAR 11; a dividend-discount read at about QAR 11.1 — a blended centre near QAR 10.9 against a price of QAR 11.07. The whole answer turns on the petrochemical leg, which earned QAR 0.7bn in 2025 and only QAR 4mn in the first quarter of 2026 as regional conflict disrupted Gulf logistics; QAFCO fertilizers are the durable cash anchor, steel a small restart option. A roughly 6% dividend yield, funded from a debt-free, net-cash balance sheet, pays the holder to wait while the Ammonia-7 blue-ammonia train (online in the second quarter of 2026) and the Ras Laffan petrochemical complex ramp. What the study says is that the market is already pricing a partial petrochemical recovery — no more, no less.
Key levels
Volatility & where the case breaks
| Typical daily moveRoughly how far the price swings in an average day (based on a measure called ATR). Bigger means choppier. | ~1% |
Monte Carlo — where could the price go?near-term price paths
50,000 simulated futures — near-term price paths, independent of the fundamental value.
The 5th–95th and 25th–75th percentile bands from the 50,000-path simulation. Static and pre-computed — independent of the fundamental levers above.
The exact percentiles
The 5th / 25th / middle / 75th / 95th outcomesLine up all 50,000 outcomes low to high — these are the values at the 5%, 25%, 50%, 75% and 95% marks., from 50,000 paths.
| Timeframe | Rare low (5%) | 25% | Middle | 75% | Rare high (95%) |
|---|
What drives the odds
50,000 paths, 16 forces: the Brent oil path, global oil demand and refining margins, SAMA/Fed rates via the riyal peg, US real rates, TASI flows, the base-dividend anchor and an oil-volatility regime — plus event forces: an OPEC+ decision, a geopolitical oil-supply spike, a global recession, a peg-stability tail, a Vision-2030 catalyst, a facilities attack, a dividend-policy change, an earnings print, and a government-take change. Details in the methodology.
Peer set & risks
Where Industries Qatar sits in its markets
Industries Qatar is a three-way industrial holding company — fertilizers, petrochemicals and steel — with no perfect single comparable. Peers trade in different currencies and aren’t directly value-comparable, so this is a competitive map, not a price table.
| Arena | IQCD's position | Main rivals |
|---|---|---|
| Nitrogen fertilizers (QAFCO) | World-scale, low-cost gas | CF Industries · Nutrien · Yara |
| Petrochemicals (QAPCO/QAFAC) | Ethylene · LDPE/LLDPE · MTBE | SABIC · Borouge · Sipchem · Advanced |
| Steel (Qatar Steel) | Billets & rebar; restarting | Emirates Steel · Hadeed · regional GCC |
| Feedstock cost | Among the world's lowest | structural Qatari-gas advantage |
| Balance sheet | Debt-free · ~QAR 8.5bn net cash | rare among cyclical peers |
| Dividend | ~6% yield · 100% payout | among the higher GCC industrials |
The investment debate turns less on any single arena than on where petrochemical margins normalise and how much of the Ammonia-7 and Ras Laffan pipeline delivers, with QAFCO fertilizers the durable cash anchor. Competitive map, not advice.
About this series & how we build these
Want the full study and the spreadsheet?
Full write-up plus the editable Excel model.
Found a flaw? Attack the model
The full study (PDF) and Excel model are available on a computer.
Edition: 5 Jul 2026. Older editions stay in the Library.