Juhayna Food Industries
Fundamental — what it's worthbottom-up fair value
Built up from projects, cash and earnings — what is it worth?
Is it cheap or expensive right now?
Latest price vs our fair value. A comparison, not a recommendation.
What it's worth
The lenses, side by side; the weighted central value is the anchor.
| Lens / part | Per share (EGP) | How it's valued |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted cash flow (primary) | 24.3 | 5-yr FCFF, Egyptian rate path · 40% |
| Relative multiples (the ceiling) | 28.7 | forward earnings multiple · 25% |
| Normalized earnings | 28.7 | through-cycle margin × multiple · 25% |
| Segment sum (the floor) | 20.5 | dairy, juice, yoghurt & agri legs · 10% |
| Fair value (weighted) | 26.1 | −13% vs latest · bear 22.0 |
Full detail, all lenses, the expert panel and the open model are in the study.
Technical & price structuretrend, momentum, key levels
Trend, momentum and key levels — what is the price doing now?
What the chart says
In plain terms: revenue has compounded to ~EGP 30bn, but FY25 profit fell as FY24’s exceptional orange-concentrate margins normalized and finance costs rose on a capex-driven leverage build. On cautious cash-flow assumptions fair value sits near EGP 26 — modestly below the ~EGP 30 price. The whole case is where gross margin settles after the concentrate super-cycle, and how fast Egyptian rates fall.
Key levels
Volatility & where the case breaks
| Typical daily moveRoughly how far the price swings in an average day (ATR). | ~3.4 (5.0%) |
| Where our case breaks | below ~50 |
Monte Carlo — where could the price go?near-term price paths
50,000 simulated futures — near-term price paths, independent of the fundamental value.
The 5th–95th and 25th–75th percentile bands from the 50,000-path simulation. Static and pre-computed — independent of the fundamental levers above.
The exact percentiles
The 5th / 25th / middle / 75th / 95th outcomesLine up all 50,000 outcomes low to high — these are the values at the 5%, 25%, 50%, 75% and 95% marks., from 50,000 paths.
| Timeframe | Rare low (5%) | 25% | Middle | 75% | Rare high (95%) |
|---|
What drives the odds
50,000 paths, 16 forces: the gas-feedstock cost (the dominant swing), the EGP, global urea/ammonia prices, rates, inflation, foreign flows, dividend policy and gas-supply interruptions. Details in the methodology.
Peer set & risks
How it compares to the others we cover
"Cheap / expensive" = vs our fair value. Not advice.
About this series & how we build these
Want the full study and the spreadsheet?
Full write-up plus the editable Excel model.
Found a flaw? Attack the model
The full study (PDF) and Excel model are available on a computer.
Edition: 1 Jul 2026. Older editions stay in the Library.