What is the fair-value range for Lecico Egypt (LCSW)?

testahil publishes a probability distribution of where LCSW could trade over the next 1–3 months — the simulated 5th–95th percentile range and the central 50% — not a single price target or a buy/sell call. The full study and open model show the methodology. This is educational analysis, not investment advice.

How is the LCSW valuation calculated?

The study uses an instrument-appropriate lens — a sum-of-the-parts / RNAV build for a real-estate developer — combined with a 50,000-path Monte Carlo simulation that expresses the result as a probability distribution. Every assumption is visible and editable in the free Excel model.

Does testahil recommend buying or selling LCSW?

No. testahil never issues buy, sell, or hold recommendations. It publishes fair-value ranges and probability distributions as educational material, and grades its own forecasts publicly when they resolve.

Is the Lecico Egypt model free to download?

Yes. The full LCSW valuation study (Word/PDF) and the open Excel model are free to download, with every assumption editable.

Lecico (LCSW) — is the stock worth it?

Fundamental — what it's worthbottom-up fair value

Lens 1 of 3Fundamental analysis — what is it worth?

Built up from projects, cash and earnings — what is it worth?

Is it cheap or expensive right now?

Latest price vs our fair value. A comparison, not a recommendation.

Technical & price structuretrend, momentum, key levels

Lens 2 of 3Technical analysis — what is the chart doing?

Trend, momentum and key levels — what is the price doing now?

Price 50-day MA 200-day MA Daily close · last 500 sessions to 6 Jul 2026

What the chart says

In plain terms: the current business on cash and assets is worth about EGP 32–36 a share. The upside above that depends on the pound weakening and profit converting to cash. That's the bet.

Key levels

Volatility & where the case breaks

Typical daily moveRoughly how far the price swings in an average day (based on a measure called ATR). Bigger means choppier.	0.60
Where our case breaks	below 24.4

Monte Carlo — where could the price go?near-term price paths

Lens 3 of 3Monte Carlo — where could the price go?

50,000 simulated futures — near-term price paths, independent of the fundamental value.

The 5th–95th and 25th–75th percentile bands from the 50,000-path simulation. Static and pre-computed — independent of the fundamental levers above.

Below 24.4 the market would be paying less than the conservative owner-earnings and asset-value floors — the point where we'd rebuild the study.

The exact percentiles

The 5th / 25th / middle / 75th / 95th outcomesLine up all 50,000 outcomes low to high — these are the values at the 5%, 25%, 50%, 75% and 95% marks., from 50,000 paths.

Timeframe	Rare low (5%)	25%	Middle	75%	Rare high (95%)

What drives the odds

One Monte Carlo model, 50,000 paths, driven by 16 outside forces: the EGP/USD rate, energy (gas & diesel) costs, Egyptian construction and consumer demand, European and Gulf export demand, the central-bank rate, foreign money flows, and inflation, plus event risks including a devaluation step, an energy-price reset, a Red Sea freight shock, and the half-year results print. Full mechanics in the methodology.

Peer set & risks

How it compares to the others we cover

"Cheap / expensive" = vs our fair value. Not advice.

About this series & how we build these

Want the full study and the spreadsheet?

Full write-up plus the editable Excel model.

Found a flaw? Attack the model

Open the study (PDF) Open the model (Excel)

The full study (PDF) and Excel model are available on a computer.

Edition: 11 Jun 2026. Older editions stay in the Library.