Ma'aden
Fundamental — what it's worthbottom-up fair value
Built up from a sum-of-the-parts by commodity segment, an explicit five-year cash-flow forecast, relative multiples and a mid-cycle earnings view — what is it worth?
Is it cheap or expensive right now?
Latest price vs our fair value. A comparison, not a recommendation.
What it's worth — four lenses
Four independent valuation methods, blended into one weighted central fair value.
| Valuation lens | Per share (SAR) | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Sum-of-the-parts by segment — primary | 44 | 40% |
| Consolidated DCF (5-yr FCFF) | 47 | 20% |
| Relative multiples | 26 | 15% |
| Mid-cycle earnings power | 42 | 25% |
| Weighted central fair value | 42 | −29% vs spot |
The four lenses span SAR 26 (relative multiples, the floor) to SAR 47 (DCF, the ceiling) — every one below spot. The commodity deck (DAP, aluminium, gold) and whether the multi-year growth capex earns its cost of capital are the swing factors. Full detail is in the study and the open model.
Technical & price structuretrend, momentum, key levels
Trend, momentum and key levels — what is the price doing now?
What the chart says
In plain terms: Ma'aden trades well above our weighted central fair value — richly valued on every fundamental lens, and priced less as a miner than as the Kingdom's sovereign-backed minerals champion. It runs a world-class, gas-advantaged phosphate business (a ~47% EBITDA margin), a full aluminium chain, and a ramping gold and base-metals unit, with a large new-minerals and exploration pipeline behind it. But at ~15.6× EV/EBITDA and ~31× earnings it is priced at roughly double the multiple of global mining peers — the premium is the Vision-2030 growth story, not today's cash flows. The bull case (~SAR 57) is a strong commodity deck plus full credit for the Phosphate 3 and gold-doubling pipeline; the cautious case (~SAR 27) is a fade in commodity prices and a peer-multiple re-rating. What moves it is the commodity deck — DAP, aluminium, gold — and whether the multi-year growth capex earns its cost of capital.
Key levels
Volatility & where the case breaks
| Typical daily moveRoughly how far the price swings in an average day (based on a measure called ATR). Bigger means choppier. | ~2% |
Monte Carlo — where could the price go?near-term price paths
50,000 simulated futures — near-term price paths, independent of the fundamental value.
The 5th–95th and 25th–75th percentile bands from the 50,000-path simulation. Static and pre-computed — independent of the fundamental levers above.
The exact percentiles
The 5th / 25th / middle / 75th / 95th outcomesLine up all 50,000 outcomes low to high — these are the values at the 5%, 25%, 50%, 75% and 95% marks., from 50,000 paths.
| Timeframe | Rare low (5%) | 25% | Middle | 75% | Rare high (95%) |
|---|
What drives the odds
50,000 paths, 16 forces: the DAP/phosphate price, LME aluminium, gold, global growth and China demand, the natural-gas feedstock cost, US real rates and TASI/passive flows — plus event forces: a quarterly print, a commodity-price spike, a global recession, a Phosphate 3 milestone, a gold-doubling catalyst, a Manara M&A deal, a dividend-initiation signal, a PIF/Vision-2030 or index-flow event, and a gas-feedstock reset. Details in the methodology.
Peer set & risks
Where Ma'aden sits in its markets
Ma'aden is an integrated, multi-commodity miner — phosphate, aluminium, and gold & base metals — and the Gulf's mining champion. Peers trade in different currencies and aren't directly value-comparable, so this is a competitive map, not a price table.
| Arena | Ma'aden's position | Main rivals |
|---|---|---|
| Phosphate (integrated) | Top-decile cost, scaling | Mosaic · Nutrien · OCP |
| Gas-feedstock cost | Structurally lowest | far below global peers |
| Aluminium chain | Full, consolidated | Alcoa · Norsk Hydro · EGA |
| Gold & base metals | Ramping (~2× by 2030) | Barrick · Newmont · AngloGold |
| Diversified scale | ~US$61bn · PIF ~64% | BHP · Rio · Vale (5–7× EV/EBITDA) |
| New minerals / M&A | Manara (50/50 with PIF) | sovereign-backed platform |
The investment debate turns less on any single arena than on the commodity-price deck and whether Ma'aden's multi-year growth capex earns its cost of capital. Competitive map, not advice.
About this series & how we build these
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Full write-up plus the editable Excel model.
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The full study (PDF) and Excel model are available on a computer.
Edition: 5 Jul 2026. Older editions stay in the Library.