Orascom Investment Holding
Fundamental — what it's worthbottom-up fair value
Built up from projects, cash and earnings — what is it worth?
Is it cheap or expensive right now?
Latest price vs our fair value. A comparison, not a recommendation.
What it's worth, five ways
A holding company is worth its assets, not its income statement: every asset marked at the value the audited books can defend, the Giza plateau concession valued by DCF, liabilities at carrying, less a holdco discount — four lenses triangulate to a weighted central figure.
| Valuation lens | Worth per share | What it measures |
|---|---|---|
| Holdco NAV — primary | 0.81 | Marked assets + Pyramids DCF, less 15% discount |
| Consolidated DCF | 0.48 | Going-concern cash flow + financial assets (the floor) |
| Relative (P/NAV) | 0.72 | Peer holdco multiple on pre-discount NAV |
| Normalized earnings power | 1.03 | Concession at maturity × justified P/E (the ceiling) |
| Weighted central fair value | 0.78 | −45% vs latest |
The whole case is that the market has priced the bull scenario: the financial NAV excluding the Pyramids is only ~EGP 0.40/share, so everything above that is concession value and DPRK optionality. The bull (trapped cash recovered, the plateau at maturity) reaches ~EGP 1.70; the consolidated DCF anchors the low end near EGP 0.48. Full detail and the four lenses are in the study and the open model.
Technical & price structuretrend, momentum, key levels
Trend, momentum and key levels — what is the price doing now?
What the chart says
In plain terms: Orascom Investment Holding trades at EGP 1.41 against a four-lens weighted fair value near EGP 0.78 — roughly −45% — so the market has already paid for the Pyramids, and the case for the price is a bull case, not a base case. The primary holding-company NAV, marking every asset at its audited value and putting a DCF on the Giza plateau concession, lands at EGP 0.81; a stricter consolidated DCF is EGP 0.48; only a normalized-earnings view of the concession at maturity (EGP 1.03) approaches the tape. What EGP 1.41 is paying for is three things the accountable books do not yet contain: the Pyramids platform at maturity rather than at its ramp-stage value, some recovery of the ~US$114m of cash trapped in North Korea beyond the 50% the auditors allow, and the Sawiris platform premium Egyptian retail money awards this counter. The chart, meanwhile, is strong — up ~74% in a year and consolidating just under the 50-day — so this is a valuation story fighting a momentum tape, not a cheap stock.
Key levels
Volatility & where the case breaks
| Typical daily moveRoughly how far the price swings in an average day (based on a measure called ATR). Bigger means choppier. | 0.037 (2.6%) |
Monte Carlo — where could the price go?near-term price paths
50,000 simulated futures — near-term price paths, independent of the fundamental value.
The 5th–95th and 25th–75th percentile bands from the 50,000-path simulation. Static and pre-computed — independent of the fundamental levers above.
The exact percentiles
The 5th / 25th / middle / 75th / 95th outcomesLine up all 50,000 outcomes low to high — these are the values at the 5%, 25%, 50%, 75% and 95% marks., from 50,000 paths.
| Timeframe | Rare low (5%) | 25% | Middle | 75% | Rare high (95%) |
|---|
What drives the odds
50,000 paths, 16 forces: tourism & GEM-driven Giza footfall, EGP/USD (OIH is net-long dollars), the CBE rate, EGX flows, the Pyramids concession ramp, a North-Korea repatriation event, the Koryolink loan, holdco-discount shifts, portfolio monetization, and earnings surprises. Details in the methodology.
Peer set & risks
How it compares to the others we cover
"Cheap / expensive" = vs our fair value. Not advice.
About this series & how we build these
Want the full study and the spreadsheet?
Full write-up plus the editable Excel model.
Found a flaw? Attack the model
The full study (PDF) and Excel model are available on a computer.
Edition: 29 Jun 2026. Older editions stay in the Library.