Nakilat
Fundamental — what it's worthbottom-up fair value
Built up from a discounted-cash-flow (FCFF) on the contracted fleet, a two-stage dividend-discount cross-check, relative multiples and a fleet-replacement NAV — what is it worth?
Is it cheap or expensive right now?
Latest price vs our fair value. A comparison, not a recommendation.
What it's worth — four lenses
Four independent valuation methods, blended into one weighted central fair value.
| Valuation lens | Per share (QAR) | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| DCF on the contracted fleet — primary | 4.90 | 40% |
| Two-stage dividend discount | 3.56 | 20% |
| Relative — EV/EBITDA & P/E vs peers | 4.00 | 15% |
| Fleet-replacement NAV | 4.06 | 25% |
| Weighted central fair value | 4.29 | −1% vs spot |
The four lenses span QAR 3.56 (the income floor) to QAR 4.90 (the DCF that alone capitalises the full ~20-year charter duration and the post-2030 deleveraging), centred almost exactly on the QAR 4.32 spot — a narrow band for a shipping name, and a fair summary of the truth: Nakilat is priced close to the present value of its own contracted charter book. The discount rate on that bond-like stream (≈7.5%) and how much credit the newbuild programme earns above its cost of capital are the swing factors. Full detail is in the study and the open model.
Technical & price structuretrend, momentum, key levels
Trend, momentum and key levels — what is the price doing now?
What the chart says
In plain terms: Nakilat trades almost exactly on our weighted central fair value — an investment-grade, contracted LNG-infrastructure income stock priced close to the present value of its own charter book. A discounted-cash-flow on the in-place fleet lands near QAR 4.90 (the one lens above spot, because it alone capitalises the full ~20-year charter duration and the post-2030 deleveraging), a two-stage dividend-discount model near QAR 3.56, relative EV/EBITDA and P/E multiples near QAR 4.00, and a fleet-replacement NAV near QAR 4.06 — a QAR 3.56–4.90 cluster centred on ~QAR 4.29. Nakilat is the world’s largest LNG shipping company: ~69 carriers (29 wholly-owned, 40 in joint ventures) on 20–25-year time charters to QatarEnergy affiliates, a fleet expanding to 112 vessels from end-2026, ~QAR 4.0bn of consolidated charter revenue, a ~3.3% dividend yield and Aa3/AA− credit. The bull case (~QAR 6.40) is a lower discount rate plus newbuild accretion and charter extensions; the cautious case (~QAR 2.71) is a structurally higher rate on a bond-like stream. What moves it near-term is the rate path, the Strait-of-Hormuz tail risk, and each quarter’s charter-hire and dividend print. One caveat specific to this name: in the calibration back-test (Appendix B) the Monte-Carlo engine did not beat a simple random walk, so the 1–3-month price map below is illustrative of the method, not a reliable forecast for QGTS.
Key levels
Monte Carlo — where could the price go?near-term price paths
50,000 simulated futures — near-term price paths, independent of the fundamental value.
The 5th–95th and 25th–75th percentile bands from the 50,000-path simulation. Static and pre-computed — independent of the fundamental levers above.
The exact percentiles
The 5th / 25th / middle / 75th / 95th outcomesLine up all 50,000 outcomes low to high — these are the values at the 5%, 25%, 50%, 75% and 95% marks., from 50,000 paths.
| Timeframe | Rare low (5%) | 25% | Middle | 75% | Rare high (95%) |
|---|
What drives the odds
50,000 paths, 16 forces: seven continuous — global LNG-demand growth, charter-market tone, the US/global rate path (the discount-rate driver), Qatar Exchange index flows, the Brent/energy complex, the USD/QAR peg, and fleet utilisation — plus nine event forces: a quarterly results print, a North Field newbuild award/milestone, a dividend change, a charter renewal/extension, a rating/refinancing action, a Strait-of-Hormuz geopolitical event, a drydock/off-hire disruption, an index rebalancing, and a broad LNG-shipping market shock. Zero secular drift for a non-EGX name. Details in the methodology.
Peer set & risks
Where Nakilat sits in its markets
Nakilat is the world's largest LNG shipping company — ~69 carriers (29 wholly-owned, 40 in joint ventures) plus one FSRU and two LPG carriers, on 20–25-year time charters to QatarEnergy affiliates, expanding to 112 vessels from end-2026. Its cleanest comparators are the listed LNG-carrier owners, though none matches its contract length or counterparty quality. This is a competitive map, not a price table.
| Arena | Nakilat's position | Main peers |
|---|---|---|
| LNG-carrier fleet | #1 in the world (~69, to 112) | Flex LNG · Capital Clean Energy · ADNOC L&S |
| Contract profile | 20–25-yr QatarEnergy charters | vs mixed long + spot cover |
| Counterparty quality | QatarEnergy affiliates (IG) | sector more fragmented |
| Credit rating (Nakilat Inc) | Aa3/A1 · AA−/A+ | sector lower |
| EV/EBITDA | ~14–15× (infra premium) | spot owners ~7–13× |
| Dividend yield | ~3.3% | spot owners ~4–10% |
The debate is duration and the discount rate, not quality — whether a bond-like, ~20-year contracted charter book deserves its ~14–15× EV/EBITDA. Nakilat trades a premium to the spot-exposed, higher-yielding LNG owners (Flex LNG ~13×, ~9–10% yield) precisely because its cash is contracted and investment-grade rather than cyclical. Competitive map, not advice.
About this series & how we build these
Want the full study and the spreadsheet?
Full write-up plus the editable Excel model.
Found a flaw? Attack the model
The full study (PDF) and Excel model are available on a computer.
Edition: 1 Jul 2026. Older editions stay in the Library.