QNB Group
Fundamental — what it's worthbottom-up fair value
Built up from a dividend model, a discounted-cash-flow (FCFF) valuation, relative multiples and the value of retained capital — what is it worth?
Is it cheap or expensive right now?
Latest price vs our fair value. A comparison, not a recommendation.
What it's worth — four lenses
Four independent valuation methods, blended into one weighted central fair value.
| Valuation lens | Per share (QAR) | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Two-stage dividend discount — primary | 18.68 | 40% |
| FCFE / distributable capital | 20.19 | 25% |
| Relative — P/B–RoTE and peer | 18.18 | 15% |
| Normalized through-cycle earnings | 17.59 | 20% |
| Weighted central fair value | 18.76 | +7% vs spot |
The four lenses cluster at QAR 17.6 (normalized) to QAR 20.2 (the FCFE build), about 7% above spot — the tightness says the value gap is a statement about the multiple the market assigns a quality franchise, not a fragile single-lens artefact. The permanent Pillar-Two tax step, the 2026 rate-cut path through NIM (the pegged riyal), and how much of a 19.3%-capitalised balance sheet is returned are the swing factors. Full detail is in the study and the open model.
Technical & price structuretrend, momentum, key levels
Trend, momentum and key levels — what is the price doing now?
What the chart says
In plain terms: QNB Group trades about 7% below our weighted central fair value — modestly cheap, with four independent bank lenses clustering tightly. A two-stage dividend-discount model on the actual payout lands near QAR 18.7, a distributable-capital (FCFE) build near QAR 20.2 (a full-capacity ceiling near QAR 22), relative P/B–RoTE multiples near QAR 18.2 and a through-cycle normalized-earnings read near QAR 17.6 — a QAR 17.6–20.2 cluster. QNB is the largest bank in the Middle East & Africa by assets (~QAR 1.39tn), ~50% owned by the Qatar Investment Authority, with best-in-class efficiency (a ~23% cost-to-income ratio) and asset quality (2.6% NPLs, 100% coverage) and a ~15% post-tax return on tangible equity. The bull case (~QAR 28.5) is a return of surplus capital, a stabilising Türkiye and a benign rate path; the cautious case (~QAR 14) is a deeper Fed/QCB cutting cycle that squeezes the margin plus a higher effective tax rate under Pillar Two. What moves it near-term is the rate path, the credit cycle in Türkiye/Egypt and the quarterly NIM and tax print.
Key levels
Monte Carlo — where could the price go?near-term price paths
50,000 simulated futures — near-term price paths, independent of the fundamental value.
The 5th–95th and 25th–75th percentile bands from the 50,000-path simulation. Static and pre-computed — independent of the fundamental levers above.
The exact percentiles
The 5th / 25th / middle / 75th / 95th outcomesLine up all 50,000 outcomes low to high — these are the values at the 5%, 25%, 50%, 75% and 95% marks., from 50,000 paths.
| Timeframe | Rare low (5%) | 25% | Middle | 75% | Rare high (95%) |
|---|
What drives the odds
50,000 paths, 16 forces: the QCB rate path (Fed-linked, the NIM driver), hydrocarbon/sovereign liquidity, regional private credit, QE/MSCI passive flows, the pegged riyal, Türkiye (Finansbank) and Egypt (Alahli) translation, and the Pillar-Two tax drift — plus event forces: a quarterly earnings surprise, an oil-price regime shift, a Fed/QCB rate move, a sovereign-rating action, an asset-quality/ECL shift, an MSCI reweight, a capital-return surprise, a geopolitical shock, and a further Pillar-Two step. Zero secular drift for a non-EGX name. Details in the methodology.
Peer set & risks
Where QNB Group sits in its markets
QNB Group is the largest bank in the Middle East & Africa by assets (~QAR 1.39tn), ~50% owned by the Qatar Investment Authority, with core Qatar plus QNB Finansbank (Türkiye) and QNB Alahli (Egypt). Best-in-class efficiency and asset quality; it screens mid-pack on price-to-book against Gulf peers despite top-tier returns. This is a competitive map, not a price table.
| Arena | QNB Group's position | Main rivals |
|---|---|---|
| Total assets (MEA banks) | #1 (>QAR 1.39tn) | First Abu Dhabi Bank · Al Rajhi · Emirates NBD |
| Qatar banking | #1 (dominant, ~50% state-owned) | Qatar Islamic Bank · Commercial Bank · Doha Bank |
| Return on tangible equity | ~15–16% (post-tax) | vs GCC mega-caps ~15–20% |
| Asset quality (NPL / coverage) | 2.6% / 100% (best-in-class) | sector higher |
| Cost-to-income | ~23% (among lowest globally) | sector ~30–40% |
| Capital adequacy (CAR) | ~19.3% (strong) | sector well-capitalised |
The debate is valuation, not quality — whether the region’s largest bank at ~1.5× tangible book on a ~15% post-tax return is modestly cheap, which all four lenses answer yes. QNB trades a premium to the cheap Qatari/Saudi cluster (Commercial Bank of Qatar, SAB ~0.7–0.9×) and far below the Islamic-premium names (Al Rajhi ~4×). Competitive map, not advice.
About this series & how we build these
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Edition: 1 Jul 2026. Older editions stay in the Library.