Raya Holding
Fundamental — what it's worthbottom-up fair value
Built up from the operating stakes on an instrument-appropriate basis — Aman (fintech/NBFC) on a P/E, RACC at its listed/tender value, and the operating companies (Raya IT, Raya Trade, FMCG, Ostool, Foods and the rest) on EV/EBITDA — less holding-company debt and a conglomerate discount — what is it worth?
Is it cheap or expensive right now?
Latest price vs our fair value. A comparison, not a recommendation.
What it's worth — five lenses
Five independent valuation methods, blended into one weighted central fair value.
| Valuation lens | Per share (EGP) | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Holding-company sum-of-the-parts (primary, 10% discount) | 5.01 | 40% |
| Consolidated DCF (FCFF cross-check, 5-yr) | 4.77 | 25% |
| Relative multiples (blended) | 6.13 | 15% |
| Normalized earnings power | 8.22 | 10% |
| Expert panel (three methods) | 6.20 | 10% |
| Weighted central fair value | 5.56 | −28% vs spot |
The sum-of-the-parts spans a wide range with the Aman multiple and the discount — attributable portfolio value near EGP 27.3 bn, a gross NAV near EGP 5.6/share before discount, ~EGP 5.0 at the base 10% discount, up into the high-EGP-7s only at a full 18x Aman multiple and no discount. The DCF corroborates from cash flows at EGP 4.77. Full detail and the five lenses are in the study and the open model.
Technical & price structuretrend, momentum, key levels
Trend, momentum and key levels — what is the price doing now?
What the chart says
In plain terms: Raya trades well above our weighted central fair value — the re-rating has run ahead of a conservative sum-of-the-parts, after a ~200% run over the past year. It is a holding company: most of its value is the operating stakes — above all Raya IT (RIT), which grew revenue 70% in FY2025, and Aman Holding, the fintech/NBFC arm that is roughly a third of the portfolio and which we value on a P/E — plus a large consumer-electronics distribution business (Raya Trade), a listed BPO (RACC) and seven smaller lines, on top of a layer of holding-company debt. The crux is the conglomerate discount — the market is applying close to zero, while our base case marks a modest 10%. The bull case, near ~EGP 8.22, is Aman at a full fintech multiple, RIT compounding and no discount; the cautious case, a consolidated cash-flow lens that deliberately ignores the asset marks, sits near ~EGP 4.77. What moves it is the direction of the discount, the Aman multiple, and whether RIT’s growth proves durable.
Key levels
Volatility & where the case breaks
| Typical daily moveRoughly how far the price swings in an average day (based on a measure called ATR). Bigger means choppier. | ~4% |
Monte Carlo — where could the price go?near-term price paths
50,000 simulated futures — near-term price paths, independent of the fundamental value.
The 5th–95th and 25th–75th percentile bands from the 50,000-path simulation. Static and pre-computed — independent of the fundamental levers above.
The exact percentiles
The 5th / 25th / middle / 75th / 95th outcomesLine up all 50,000 outcomes low to high — these are the values at the 5%, 25%, 50%, 75% and 95% marks., from 50,000 paths.
| Timeframe | Rare low (5%) | 25% | Middle | 75% | Rare high (95%) |
|---|
What drives the odds
50,000 paths, 16 forces: the EGX beta & foreign flows, Aman & RIT growth, consumer spending & digital adoption, EGP/USD translation, the CBE rate path, inflation, KSA/Gulf expansion and government digital-transformation capex — plus event forces: an Aman capital raise or IPO, RACC full-takeover completion, a major RIT contract award, an earnings surprise, a holdco-discount regime shift, an EGP step devaluation, a consumer-credit cycle at Aman, a competitive-disruption shock, and a geopolitical / regional-security flare. Details in the methodology.
Peer set & risks
Where Raya sits in its markets
Raya is a diversified investment holding company spanning consumer-electronics distribution, IT and data centres, fintech and a listed BPO, and its economics differ sharply in each. Peers trade in different currencies and aren't directly value-comparable, so this is a structural map, not a price table.
| Arena | Raya's position | Key driver |
|---|---|---|
| Distribution (Raya Trade) | 100% · largest revenue | volumes · thin margin |
| IT & data centres (RIT) | 100% · +70% growth | digital transformation · KSA · multiple |
| Fintech / NBFC (Aman) | ~76% · P/E-valued | consumer credit · payments · crown jewel |
| BPO (RACC, listed) | ~87% · consolidating | tender-marked · moving to full |
| FMCG · Foods · Ostool · others | wholly owned | steady · Foods a hard-currency earner |
| Conglomerate discount | ~0% applied by market | the swing factor |
The investment debate turns less on any single arena than on the conglomerate discount — how much of the asset value the market credits — and on the multiple Aman deserves. Structural map, not advice.
About this series & how we build these
Want the full study and the spreadsheet?
Full write-up plus the editable Excel model.
Found a flaw? Attack the model
The full study (PDF) and Excel model are available on a computer.
Edition: 01 Jul 2026. Older editions stay in the Library.