Rameda
Fundamental — what it's worthbottom-up fair value
Built up from projects, cash and earnings — what is it worth?
Is it cheap or expensive right now?
Latest price vs our fair value. A comparison, not a recommendation.
What it's worth
The lenses, side by side; the weighted central value is the anchor.
| Lens / part | Per share (EGP) | How it's valued |
|---|---|---|
| FCFF DCF (primary) | 1.73 | 5-yr FCFF, Egyptian rate path · 35% |
| Relative (own band, the ceiling) | 4.40 | EV/EBITDA 6.5–9.5× on FY26E EBITDA · 25% |
| Normalized earnings | 3.65 | recurring core · 25% |
| DDM (policy, the floor) | 1.00 | payout-based · 15% |
| Fair value (weighted) | 2.77 | −45% vs latest · bear 2.11, bull 3.48 |
Full detail, all lenses, the expert panel and the open model are in the study.
Technical & price structuretrend, momentum, key levels
Trend, momentum and key levels — what is the price doing now?
What the chart says
In plain terms: a compounding Egyptian pharma manufacturer, but the discounted-cash-flow lens (EGP 1.73, at Egypt's sourced cost of capital) and the market-multiple lenses (EGP 3.65–4.40) disagree by more than 2× — the market's EGP 5.00 is a bet that Egyptian rates normalise faster than the sourced curve says.
Key levels
Volatility & where the case breaks
| Typical daily moveRoughly how far the price swings in an average day (ATR). | ~0.5 (2.2%) |
| Where our case breaks | below ~1.73 |
Monte Carlo — where could the price go?near-term price paths
50,000 simulated futures — near-term price paths, independent of the fundamental value.
The 5th–95th and 25th–75th percentile bands from the 50,000-path simulation. Static and pre-computed — independent of the fundamental levers above.
The exact percentiles
The 5th / 25th / middle / 75th / 95th outcomesLine up all 50,000 outcomes low to high — these are the values at the 5%, 25%, 50%, 75% and 95% marks., from 50,000 paths.
| Timeframe | Rare low (5%) | 25% | Middle | 75% | Rare high (95%) |
|---|
What drives the odds
50,000 paths, 16 forces: the CBE facility-cost path (24.0% observed effective → a norm-built 15% terminal), NWC normalisation speed (66.4% → 54% of revenue), the EDA pricing regime unwinding, USD-linked API costs, and the risk of a further EGP step-devaluation — Egypt has devalued five times since 2016, several by 14–45% in a single move, so this is modelled as a recurring risk, not a rare one-off. Details in the methodology.
Peer set & risks
How it compares to the others we cover
"Cheap / expensive" = vs our fair value. Not advice.
About this series & how we build these
Want the full study and the spreadsheet?
Full write-up plus the editable Excel model.
Found a flaw? Attack the model
The full study (PDF) and Excel model are available on a computer.
Edition: 17 Jun 2026. Older editions stay in the Library.