Samsung Electronics
Fundamental — what it's worthbottom-up fair value
Built up from the memory, foundry and devices businesses, net cash and earnings — what is it worth?
Is it cheap or expensive right now?
Latest price vs our fair value. A comparison, not a recommendation.
What it's worth — five lenses
Five independent valuation methods, blended into one weighted central fair value.
| Valuation lens | Per share (KRW) | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Sum-of-the-parts — normalized (base) | 284,253 | 25% |
| Sum-of-the-parts — supercycle (bull) | 411,508 | 15% |
| Consolidated DCF (FCFF) | 215,555 | 10% |
| Relative multiples (blended) | 297,738 | 25% |
| Normalized earnings power | 253,394 | 25% |
| Weighted central fair value | 296,502 | −13% vs spot |
The sum-of-the-parts alone spans a wide cycle range — a downside near KRW 95,000 if memory mean-reverts to a trough, up to ~KRW 411,000 in a sustained supercycle. Net cash of ~KRW 119 trillion sits inside every lens. Full detail and the five lenses are in the study and the open model.
Technical & price structuretrend, momentum, key levels
Trend, momentum and key levels — what is the price doing now?
What the chart says
In plain terms: Samsung trades a little above our weighted central fair value, so the market is already paying for much of the AI-memory boom. The bull case — a durable supercycle, HBM4 wins and disciplined capacity — supports a path toward the ~KRW 411,000 upside scenario; the cautious case, anchored on after-capex owner cash flow and a normalized through-cycle margin, sits nearer ~KRW 215,000. What separates them is almost entirely memory: the direction of DRAM/NAND pricing and whether Samsung closes its high-bandwidth-memory gap with SK Hynix. The balance sheet is a real cushion — net cash of roughly KRW 119 trillion — but it does not protect the earnings, which are ~94% memory and therefore deeply cyclical.
Key levels
Volatility & where the case breaks
| Typical daily moveRoughly how far the price swings in an average day (based on a measure called ATR). Bigger means choppier. | ~3–4% |
Monte Carlo — where could the price go?near-term price paths
50,000 simulated futures — near-term price paths, independent of the fundamental value.
The 5th–95th and 25th–75th percentile bands from the 50,000-path simulation. Static and pre-computed — independent of the fundamental levers above.
The exact percentiles
The 5th / 25th / middle / 75th / 95th outcomesLine up all 50,000 outcomes low to high — these are the values at the 5%, 25%, 50%, 75% and 95% marks., from 50,000 paths.
| Timeframe | Rare low (5%) | 25% | Middle | 75% | Rare high (95%) |
|---|
What drives the odds
50,000 paths, 10 forces: DRAM/NAND memory pricing, USD/KRW, AI & data-centre capex, the KOSPI beta, smartphone & device demand, a memory-oversupply scare, an HBM4 / AI-allocation win, US tariff & export policy, a capital-return surprise, and labour disruption. Details in the methodology.
Peer set & risks
Where Samsung sits in its markets
Samsung competes across several distinct arenas, and its position differs sharply in each. Rivals trade in different currencies and aren't directly value-comparable, so this is a competitive map, not a price table.
| Arena | Samsung's position | Main rivals |
|---|---|---|
| DRAM | #1 by share | SK Hynix · Micron |
| NAND flash | #1 by share | SK Hynix · Micron · Kioxia |
| HBM (AI memory) | Challenger | SK Hynix (leader) · Micron |
| Foundry (logic) | Distant #2 | TSMC (dominant) |
| Smartphones | #1 by volume | Apple · Xiaomi |
| Displays (OLED) | #1 small-panel | LG Display · BOE |
The investment debate turns on the AI-memory arena: Samsung leads conventional DRAM/NAND but trails SK Hynix in high-bandwidth memory — closing that gap is the central upside catalyst. Competitive map, not advice.
About this series & how we build these
Want the full study and the spreadsheet?
Full write-up plus the editable Excel model.
Found a flaw? Attack the model
The full study (PDF) and Excel model are available on a computer.
Edition: 27 Jun 2026. Older editions stay in the Library.