The Saudi National Bank
Fundamental — what it's worthbottom-up fair value
Built up from a dividend model, a discounted-cash-flow (FCFF) valuation, relative multiples and the value of retained capital — what is it worth?
Is it cheap or expensive right now?
Latest price vs our fair value. A comparison, not a recommendation.
What it's worth — four lenses
Four independent valuation methods, blended into one weighted central fair value.
| Valuation lens | Per share (SAR) | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Dividend discount model — primary | 44.22 | 40% |
| Discounted cash flow (FCFF) | 44.85 | 20% |
| Relative — P/E and P/B | 46.09 | 15% |
| Justified P/B (sustainable ROE) | 46.91 | 25% |
| Weighted central fair value | 45.30 | +16% vs spot |
The four lenses cluster tightly at SAR 44.2 (the dividend model) to SAR 46.9 (justified P/B), about 16% above spot — the tightness says the value gap is a statement about the multiple the market assigns a quality franchise, not a fragile single-lens artefact. The NIM path through the SAMA easing cycle and the Türkiye / legacy international drag are the swing factors. Full detail is in the study and the open model.
Technical & price structuretrend, momentum, key levels
Trend, momentum and key levels — what is the price doing now?
What the chart says
In plain terms: The Saudi National Bank trades about 16% below our weighted central fair value — modestly cheap, and unusually, four independent bank lenses converge on the same answer. A two-stage dividend model lands near SAR 44, a discounted-cash-flow (FCFF) build near SAR 45, relative multiples near SAR 46 and a sustainable-return justified price-to-book near SAR 47 — a tight SAR 44–47 cluster. SNB is the Kingdom’s national banking champion, formed from the 2021 NCB–Samba merger: ~SAR 1.26 tn of assets, the deepest low-cost (CASA) deposit base among covered banks, a 74%-fixed-rate investment book that protects gross yield as rates fall, and a 16%+ return on tangible equity at a sector-low cost-to-income. The bull case (~SAR 55) is durable margin resilience and a step-up in payout; the cautious case (~SAR 36) is a faster SAMA cutting cycle that squeezes the net interest margin and a persistent Türkiye / legacy international drag. What moves it near-term is the rate path and the quarterly NIM print.
Key levels
Volatility & where the case breaks
| Typical daily moveRoughly how far the price swings in an average day (based on a measure called ATR). Bigger means choppier. | ~1.5% |
Monte Carlo — where could the price go?near-term price paths
50,000 simulated futures — near-term price paths, independent of the fundamental value.
The 5th–95th and 25th–75th percentile bands from the 50,000-path simulation. Static and pre-computed — independent of the fundamental levers above.
The exact percentiles
The 5th / 25th / middle / 75th / 95th outcomesLine up all 50,000 outcomes low to high — these are the values at the 5%, 25%, 50%, 75% and 95% marks., from 50,000 paths.
| Timeframe | Rare low (5%) | 25% | Middle | 75% | Rare high (95%) |
|---|
What drives the odds
50,000 paths, 16 forces: the SAMA/Fed rate path (the NIM driver), oil and the fiscal impulse, Vision-2030 credit demand, the mortgage & retail cycle, TASI beta and passive flows, system liquidity, and inflation — plus event forces: a quarterly earnings surprise, a dividend/payout surprise, a SAMA/Fed policy surprise, a cost-of-risk shift, an oil-price shock, a geopolitical shock, a mortgage-policy change, an index-flow rebalance, and a capital action. Details in the methodology.
Peer set & risks
Where The Saudi National Bank sits in its markets
SNB is the Kingdom’s national banking champion — Saudi Arabia’s second-largest bank by market value, formed from the 2021 NCB–Samba merger, with the deepest low-cost (CASA) deposit base among covered banks. It screens in line with its returns against Saudi and GCC peers. This is a competitive map, not a price table.
| Arena | SNB's position | Main rivals |
|---|---|---|
| Market cap (Saudi banks) | #2 (~SAR 234bn) | Al Rajhi · Riyad Bank · Alinma |
| Total assets | #1 (~SAR 1.26tn) | Kingdom's largest balance sheet |
| Return on tangible equity | ~16% (mid-teens) | vs sector ~13–16% |
| Low-cost (CASA) deposits | ~72% (deepest base) | Al Rajhi · Alinma |
| Cost-to-income | ~28% grp / ~25% dom | sector ~30–35% |
| Capital (Tier-1) | ~20.3% (strong) | sector well-capitalised |
The debate is valuation, not quality — whether a national champion at ~1.3× book on a 16%+ return is too cheap, which all four lenses answer modestly yes. Competitive map, not advice.
About this series & how we build these
Want the full study and the spreadsheet?
Full write-up plus the editable Excel model.
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The full study (PDF) and Excel model are available on a computer.
Edition: 1 Jul 2026. Older editions stay in the Library.