Tesla, Inc.
Fundamental — what it's worthbottom-up fair value
Built up from the automotive business, energy generation & storage, services, net cash, and a probability-weighted autonomy option — what is it worth?
Is it cheap or expensive right now?
Latest price vs our fair value. A comparison, not a recommendation.
What it's worth — five lenses
Five independent valuation methods, blended into one weighted central fair value; the autonomy-at-scale case carries a full quarter of the weight.
| Valuation lens | Per share (USD) | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Sum-of-the-parts — base (primary) | 230 | 20% |
| Consolidated DCF (FCFF) — floor | 90 | 25% |
| Relative multiples (blended) | 172 | 15% |
| Normalized earnings power | 130 | 15% |
| Autonomy-at-scale (SOTP bull) — ceiling | 560 | 25% |
| Weighted central fair value | 254 | −40% vs spot |
The sum-of-the-parts spans a wide range — the operating businesses at ~$127, an autonomy option risk-weighted to reach ~$230 (base), up to ~$560 if the option is credited at full scale. The autonomy option is the swing factor. Full detail and the five lenses are in the study and the open model.
Technical & price structuretrend, momentum, key levels
Trend, momentum and key levels — what is the price doing now?
What the chart says
In plain terms: Tesla trades far above our weighted central fair value — richly valued on the operating businesses, with almost the entire premium resting on the autonomy bet. It is best read as an operating company — a profitable EV maker, a fast-growing energy-storage business, and a small services arm — wrapped around a large option on autonomy and robotics (Full Self-Driving, Robotaxi and Optimus) whose cash flows do not yet exist. On operating cash flows and earnings the business is worth roughly USD 90–230 a share; the bull case (~$560, the top of the sum-of-the-parts) needs Robotaxi and Optimus to scale into large, high-margin businesses, while the cautious case (~$103) is autonomy stalling as the multiple de-rates. What moves it is how likely, how large and how soon the autonomy businesses become real — an outcome the market observes only through the price.
Key levels
Volatility & where the case breaks
| Typical daily moveRoughly how far the price swings in an average day (based on a measure called ATR). Bigger means choppier. | ~4% |
Monte Carlo — where could the price go?near-term price paths
50,000 simulated futures — near-term price paths, independent of the fundamental value.
The 5th–95th and 25th–75th percentile bands from the 50,000-path simulation. Static and pre-computed — independent of the fundamental levers above.
The exact percentiles
The 5th / 25th / middle / 75th / 95th outcomesLine up all 50,000 outcomes low to high — these are the values at the 5%, 25%, 50%, 75% and 95% marks., from 50,000 paths.
| Timeframe | Rare low (5%) | 25% | Middle | 75% | Rare high (95%) |
|---|
What drives the odds
50,000 paths, 16 forces: FSD/Robotaxi monetization, delivery volumes, auto ASP/margin, energy-storage growth, Nasdaq/high-beta flows, US real rates and input costs/FX — plus event forces: a Robotaxi/unsupervised-FSD milestone, a quarterly delivery print, a quarterly earnings/margin print, Optimus progress, a China demand/price-war shock, an EV-credit/tariff/FSD-probe policy event, a key-person/governance event, a broad Nasdaq risk-off, and an energy megadeal. Details in the methodology.
Peer set & risks
Where Tesla sits in its markets
Tesla competes across several arenas — EVs, energy storage, autonomy software, robotaxis, humanoid robots and charging — and its position differs sharply in each. Rivals trade in different currencies and aren't directly value-comparable, so this is a competitive map, not a price table.
| Arena | Tesla's position | Main rivals |
|---|---|---|
| EV manufacturing (global) | Co-leader | BYD · legacy OEMs |
| Energy generation & storage | Top tier | CATL · Fluence |
| Robotaxi / autonomy | Challenger | Waymo |
| Humanoid robotics | Early (pre-revenue) | Figure · others |
| FSD / ADAS software | Leader (fleet data) | Mobileye · others |
| Charging network | #1 (NACS) | opened to other OEMs |
The investment debate turns less on any single arena than on the autonomy option — how much of the price the unproven Robotaxi, FSD and Optimus businesses justify. Competitive map, not advice.
About this series & how we build these
Want the full study and the spreadsheet?
Full write-up plus the editable Excel model.
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The full study (PDF) and Excel model are available on a computer.
Edition: 01 Jul 2026. Older editions stay in the Library.