Electro Cable Egypt Co. S.A.E.
Fundamental — what it's worthbottom-up fair value
Built up from projects, cash and earnings — what is it worth?
Is it cheap or expensive right now?
Latest price vs our fair value. A comparison, not a recommendation.
A weighted what-if off the published fair value — not a re-run DCF, and it never touches the Monte Carlo section below. Note what these levers cannot do: the base-case enterprise value does not cover the net debt, so the DCF lens sits on its limited-liability floor and only a combination of levers — collection AND conversion margin AND the easing cycle — lifts the weighted number materially. That is the finding, not a display quirk.
Technical & price structuretrend, momentum, key levels
Trend, momentum and key levels — what is the price doing now?
What the chart says
In plain terms: at today’s 21.5% cost of capital the discounted cash flows are worth about EGP 3.8bn while the net debt against them is about EGP 9.8bn — so on the base case the equity is worth nothing, and is floored at zero only because a shareholder cannot owe more than the stake. What EGP 2.19 buys is an option on three things going right together: the receivables collecting, conversion margins recovering from the 1Q26 trough, and the CBE resuming its easing cycle. That’s the bet.
Key levels
Volatility & where the case breaks
| Typical daily moveRoughly how far the price swings in an average day (based on a measure called ATR). Bigger means choppier. | 0.05 |
| Where our case breaks | above 0.95 |
Monte Carlo — where could the price go?near-term price paths
50,000 simulated futures — near-term price paths, independent of the fundamental value.
The full 3-month path, from the same distribution as the odds above. Static — nothing here is adjustable, unlike the levers under Fundamental.
Our fundamental range tops out at EGP 0.95 even in the bull case — so unlike most names we cover, the whole simulated price cone sits ABOVE the fair-value range, not around it. Read that gap for what it is: the simulation prices where the tape can travel over three months, the study prices what the business is worth. A sustained move above EGP 0.95 on the fundamentals — collection landing, margins recovering, rates falling — is the point where we’d rebuild the study.
The exact percentiles
The 5th / 25th / middle / 75th / 95th outcomesLine up all 50,000 outcomes low to high — these are the values at the 5%, 25%, 50%, 75% and 95% marks., from 50,000 paths.
| Timeframe | Rare low (5%) | 25% | Middle | 75% | Rare high (95%) |
|---|
What drives the odds
One Monte Carlo model, 50,000 paths, driven by the outside forces relevant to a levered, copper-converting cable maker: the LME copper price, the EGP/USD rate, the CBE policy corridor and the pace of easing, Egyptian inflation, the state grid-investment cycle (EETC’s transmission plan and the EU grid package), export and interconnector demand, US copper-tariff policy, energy and freight costs, working-capital collection from state-linked customers, and the controlling group’s continuing block sales into the float. Full mechanics in the methodology.
Peer set & risks
How it compares to the others we cover
"Cheap / expensive" = vs our fair value. Not advice.
About this series & how we build these
Want the full study and the spreadsheet?
Full write-up plus the editable Excel model.
Found a flaw? Attack the model
The full study (PDF) and Excel model are available on a computer.
Edition: 5 Aug 2026. Older editions stay in the Library.