Ticker Picker — can it get there in time?
Every covered stock has two published objects: a fair value from its ground-up study, and a simulated price range from its calibrated Monte Carlo. This page reads them together and asks one question the two cannot answer alone: is the fair value even reachable within 1 or 3 months, given how much this stock actually moves?
The answer is often no — and that is the point. A stock 70% below our fair value cannot close that gap in a month no matter how right the study is; a stock 6% below can. This page sorts the coverage by reachability, not by headline upside — because at short horizons, the two rankings are nearly opposite.
Read this before using the table — this tool is provisional, and here is exactly why.
The probabilities below come from the same published simulations graded on the Ledger — of the 13 forecasts graded so far, 12 landed inside their predicted 90% band, so the "how far can it move" machinery holds up. The fair-value targets are a different matter: whether our valuations actually predict returns has not yet been established, because the track record is too young to test. Resolving it needs roughly 783 graded observations; we have 5. On the platform's committed cadence — prices refreshed at least monthly, every fair value re-struck at least every six months, coverage growing from 72 toward 100 tickers — that verdict is expected around 2027, and this page will say so when it changes.
Until then, every number here answers "if the fair value is right, what are the odds the price reaches it in time" — never "the fair value is right." Same standing rule as the whole site: educational analysis read off published studies, not investment advice, not a recommendation to buy or sell anything.
Click any column heading to sort by it — click again to reverse. Reachability is the default (best-reachability first, ties broken by higher P(touch)); that default is what made the ranking earlier, nothing else is applied unless you click a heading. P(touch) is the simulated chance the price trades through the fair value at any point before the horizon, from the same 50,000-path simulation published on each ticker page — rows with no meaningful probability (beyond 4σ, a dash) always sort to the bottom regardless of direction. "already there" means spot is already within this stock's own noise of fair value, so touching it is essentially guaranteed by definition — the simulation's exact number for those rows can land below 100% for a real but uninteresting reason (it only checks daily closes, not every instant in between), so we don't show a number that would just invite "why not 100%?" for no informational gain. Stale flags a fair value older than 6 months, due for re-study.
What the bands mean
The distance from price to fair value is measured in each stock's own typical movement (its published simulation width, σ), not in percent — a 15% gap is nothing for a stock that swings 16% a month and enormous for one that swings 7%.
IN-REACH within 1σ — closing the gap is an ordinary move for this stock at this horizon.
STRETCH 1–2σ — possible, but it would need a catalyst, not just drift.
OUT-OF-REACH 2–4σ — not a 1–3 month proposition; the thesis, if right, plays out on quarters.
NOT EXPRESSIBLE beyond 4σ — this horizon cannot carry the thesis at all; the probability is suppressed rather than shown as a misleading 0%.
The pattern worth knowing: the biggest bargains are usually the slowest. Names 40–70% below our fair value sit 3–6σ away — their case, if right, needs years. The names that can actually pay within a quarter are the ones a few percent from fair value. Ranking by upside and ranking by reachability are nearly inverse; this page ranks by reachability and shows the upside beside it.
Where the numbers come from
Everything on this page is arithmetic on objects already published elsewhere on this site: the fair values from each name's valuation study (bear / base / bull, struck on the study's own date) and the price distributions from each name's calibrated simulation (the same cones, quantiles and touch machinery as the ticker pages, seed and all). Nothing is re-estimated here, and this page never feeds back into the engine — the simulation stays deliberately blind to the fair values it is being read against, so a wrong valuation can never contaminate a calibrated cone. Full procedure, invariants and the falsification plan: methodology.
Prices and cones are as of each name's own published anchor date, shown per row. The table regenerates whenever coverage rolls forward — it is a generated surface, like the feed and the sitemap.