Platinum
Fundamental — what it's worthreal-rate model
Built up from projects, cash and earnings — what is it worth?
Is it cheap or expensive right now?
Latest price vs our fair value. A comparison, not a recommendation.
What underpins the value
A commodity has no balance sheet — five lenses bound a fair-value zone NOW instead (undated; the dated 1/3/12-month odds are above).
| What sets the value | Reference | How it's read |
|---|---|---|
| Pt/Au ratio (primary) | ~1,831 | gold × 5-year-mean ratio 0.461 — still cheap vs gold |
| Analyst-consensus anchor | ~1,750 | UBS $1,700–1,800 fresh; LBMA survey $2,222 stale-high |
| Structural supply/demand | deficit | 4th straight deficit · ~11 weeks of stock cover — thinnest ever |
| Mining cost curve | ~1,006 | S&P AISC — tested 2018–24; greenfield incentive $2,300–2,500 |
| Real-rate carry | near-term cap | 10Y real ~2.31% (an ~18-year high) · firm dollar |
| Fair-value zone (centre, now) | 1,634 | +2% vs latest · zone 1,310–2,139 |
The Pt/Au ratio and the consensus anchor the level, the four-year deficit and eleven weeks of cover underpin it, the tested cost curve bounds the deep bear, and real-rate carry sets the near-term tilt. Spot ~$1,608 sits essentially at the centre of the $1,310–2,139 zone. Full detail and the five lenses are in the study and the open model.
Technical & price structuretrend, momentum, key levels
Trend, momentum and key levels — what is the price doing now?
What the chart says
In plain terms: platinum pays nothing and has no cash flows, so its value rests primarily on its ratio to gold (~0.40× today — the 12th percentile of the post-2016 regime, still historically cheap) and the analyst consensus (UBS $1,700–1,800 post-crash; the January LBMA survey's $2,222 was set at the record and is stale), cross-checked against a fourth-straight structural deficit that has cut above-ground stocks to ~11 weeks of cover — the thinnest ever. Fair value NOW is a zone of $1,310–$2,139 (centre ~$1,634), with spot ~$1,608 essentially at the centre after a −42% round trip from January's record — a crash triggered by the surprise Warsh Fed-chair nomination. The near-term cap is an ~18-year-high real yield, a firm dollar and demand destruction (China jewellery −42%); the swing risk is reverse Pt→Pd substitution now that platinum trades at a ~1.3× premium to palladium; the upside is the stock-depletion squeeze re-arming and a 2027 easing cycle.
Key levels
Volatility & where the case breaks
| Typical daily moveRoughly how far the price swings in an average day (based on a measure called ATR). Bigger means choppier. | $65 (4.1%) |
| Where our case breaks | below ~1,348 |
Monte Carlo — where could the price go?near-term price paths
50,000 simulated futures — near-term price paths, independent of the fundamental value.
The 5th–95th and 25th–75th percentile bands from the 50,000-path simulation. Static and pre-computed — independent of the fundamental levers above.
The exact percentiles
The 5th / 25th / middle / 75th / 95th outcomesLine up all 50,000 outcomes low to high — these are the values at the 5%, 25%, 50%, 75% and 95% marks., from 50,000 paths.
| Timeframe | Rare low (5%) | 25% | Middle | 75% | Rare high (95%) |
|---|
What drives the odds
50,000 paths. The width is sized by the carry-anchored YZ-HAR v3 engine on platinum's own history (Gaussian tail, width 0.853 — a PROVISIONAL first fit, flagged; Step 0 verdict PARITY vs a carry-anchored random walk); drift is pure cost-of-carry (Fed 3.63%, q = 0) — no factor drift, so the fundamental and probabilistic lenses stay independent. The forces that decide which path realizes: real US 10-year yields, the dollar, the gold price & Pt/Au ratio, the palladium discount & reverse substitution, auto-catalyst demand, Chinese jewellery & bar demand, hydrogen/industrial growth, South African supply shocks, lease-rate/physical squeezes, ETF & positioning flows, and the stale-consensus reversion. Details in the methodology.
More metals coverage
Platinum is the industrial-precious hybrid — valued against gold through the Pt/Au ratio, with the deficit and the cost curve underneath.
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Edition: 20 Jul 2026. Older editions stay in the Library.