ADNOC Logistics & Services plc
Fundamental — what it's worthbottom-up fair value
Built up from projects, cash and earnings — what is it worth?
Is it cheap or expensive right now?
Latest price vs our fair value. A comparison, not a recommendation.
A weighted what-if off the published fair value — not a re-run DCF, and it never touches the Monte Carlo section below. Each lever is sized from the study’s own sensitivity grid for that input, then scaled by the 40% weight the cash-flow lens carries in the weighted central, since that is the lens the grids re-run. Note which lever dominates: the BETA, not the operations. Measuring the market by the published index of the share’s own exchange gives 1.10 and a cash-flow value of AED 6.40; measuring it by an equal-weight composite of the same exchange’s names gives 0.71 and AED 9.37. The engine resolves that regressor rather than the analyst choosing it, which is exactly why the choice is shown here instead of buried.
Technical & price structuretrend, momentum, key levels
Trend, momentum and key levels — what is the price doing now?
What the chart says
In plain terms: this is the shipping and marine logistics arm of the national oil company — about half its revenue contracted to the parent group, the other half a merchant fleet earning whatever the tanker market pays. Those two halves want different valuation treatment, and the study gives it to them: the contracted work is projected off its own segment drivers, while the tanker leg is rebuilt VESSEL BY VESSEL from the disclosed charter table. The one number everything turns on is the tanker rate, and the study does not assume it — it SOLVES it, because the chief financial officer said on the first-quarter call that the rate the company publishes is a fleet blend including vessels already locked on long-term charter: "it’s a blended rate that we give there, which is obviously less than the spot rate." Backing the chartered vessels out of a published very-large-crude-carrier blend of 145,000 a day implies a spot rate of 199,838. The four lenses land between AED 3.66 and AED 8.91 and weight to AED 7.05, against a price of AED 6.16.
Key levels
Volatility & where the case breaks
| Typical daily moveRoughly how far the price swings in an average day (based on a measure called ATR). Bigger means choppier. | 0.11 |
| Where our case breaks | above 10.80 |
Monte Carlo — where could the price go?near-term price paths
50,000 simulated futures — near-term price paths, independent of the fundamental value.
The full 3-month path, from the same distribution as the odds above. Static — nothing here is adjustable, unlike the levers under Fundamental.
The three-month cone runs AED 4.95 to AED 7.73 around a middle of 6.18, and the fundamental field runs AED 5.02 to AED 10.80 around a weighted central of 7.05 — so unlike some names we cover, the cone and the fair-value field overlap rather than argue. Read them as answering different questions: the simulation prices where the tape can travel over three months from the tape’s own behaviour, the study prices what the business is worth from its cash flows. The calibration behind the cone is PARITY, not skill, and the record is short — see the note below.
The exact percentiles
The 5th / 25th / middle / 75th / 95th outcomesLine up all 50,000 outcomes low to high — these are the values at the 5%, 25%, 50%, 75% and 95% marks., from 50,000 paths.
| Timeframe | Rare low (5%) | 25% | Middle | 75% | Rare high (95%) |
|---|
What drives the odds
One Monte Carlo model, 50,000 paths, driven by the outside forces relevant to a fleet owner earning dollars against a currency pegged to the dollar: crude and refined-product tanker day rates across the very large crude carrier, long-range and medium-range classes, OPEC+ production policy and the tonne-mile demand it sets, the crude tanker order book at about 27% of the trading fleet, sanctions and shadow-fleet capacity moving in and out of legitimate trade, bunker fuel and canal costs, the pace of the parent group’s offshore programme and the roughly USD 25 billion of long-term contracted revenue behind it, vessel resale values, and the dirham’s fixed parity to the dollar, which removes the currency channel entirely. Full mechanics in the methodology.
How well has this cone actually done?
Honestly: the record is short and the verdict is PARITY, not skill. The share listed in June 2023, so only 3.2 years of history exist and just 8 non-overlapping three-month windows have resolved. Across those the cone beat a carry-anchored random walk by 2.95% on a scale-normalised score, which is inside the noise band under every bootstrap block size tested. Coverage ran 38% / 75% / 88% against the 50% / 80% / 90% bands it aims at, and the outcomes were uniform across the distribution (p = 0.64). The five-year requirement is met at the market level rather than the name level: the Abu Dhabi panel of 18 names carries 261 resolved windows, with skill of +0.68% and a 90% interval of \u22120.1% to +1.4%. Read the bands as a well-behaved but lightly-evidenced estimate of dispersion.
Peer set & risks
How it compares to the others we cover
"Cheap / expensive" = vs our fair value. Not advice.
About this series & how we build these
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Edition: 9 Aug 2026. Older editions stay in the Library.