Alexandria Mineral Oils Company S.A.E.
Fundamental — what it's worthbottom-up fair value
Built up from projects, cash and earnings — what is it worth?
Is it cheap or expensive right now?
Latest price vs our fair value. A comparison, not a recommendation.
A weighted what-if off the published fair value — not a re-run DCF, and it never touches the Monte Carlo section below. The sizes come from the study’s own sensitivity grids, each of which re-runs the whole unit build, scaled down for the fact that only the cash-flow lenses move. Note which lever dominates: the cost of capital, not the operations. Three points of easing is worth more than a fifteen-percent swing in conversion margin, because 77% of the enterprise value sits in the terminal year and the Egyptian discount rate is what compresses it. That is the study’s central claim in one control.
Technical & price structuretrend, momentum, key levels
Trend, momentum and key levels — what is the price doing now?
What the chart says
In plain terms: at today’s 21.5% cost of capital the discounted cash flows are worth about EGP 3.8bn while the net debt against them is about EGP 9.8bn — so on the base case the equity is worth nothing, and is floored at zero only because a shareholder cannot owe more than the stake. What EGP 2.19 buys is an option on three things going right together: the receivables collecting, conversion margins recovering from the 1Q26 trough, and the CBE resuming its easing cycle. That’s the bet.
Key levels
Volatility & where the case breaks
| Typical daily moveRoughly how far the price swings in an average day (based on a measure called ATR). Bigger means choppier. | 0.05 |
| Where our case breaks | above 0.95 |
Monte Carlo — where could the price go?near-term price paths
50,000 simulated futures — near-term price paths, independent of the fundamental value.
The full 3-month path, from the same distribution as the odds above. Static — nothing here is adjustable, unlike the levers under Fundamental.
Our fundamental range tops out at EGP 0.95 even in the bull case — so unlike most names we cover, the whole simulated price cone sits ABOVE the fair-value range, not around it. Read that gap for what it is: the simulation prices where the tape can travel over three months, the study prices what the business is worth. A sustained move above EGP 0.95 on the fundamentals — collection landing, margins recovering, rates falling — is the point where we’d rebuild the study.
The exact percentiles
The 5th / 25th / middle / 75th / 95th outcomesLine up all 50,000 outcomes low to high — these are the values at the 5%, 25%, 50%, 75% and 95% marks., from 50,000 paths.
| Timeframe | Rare low (5%) | 25% | Middle | 75% | Rare high (95%) |
|---|
What drives the odds
One Monte Carlo model, 50,000 paths, driven by the outside forces relevant to a hard-currency industrial exporter listed in a soft-currency market: the LME copper price, the EGP/USD path, the CBE policy corridor and the pace of easing, Egyptian inflation, Gulf and North African grid and infrastructure spending, the order book and its conversion rate, interconnector and data-centre demand for cable and transformers, energy and freight costs, convertibility and repatriation risk on the foreign earnings, and the free float — 11.6% of the shares, with 68% held by the family and 20% by Electra, which is what makes the tape thin. Full mechanics in the methodology.
Peer set & risks
How it compares to the others we cover
"Cheap / expensive" = vs our fair value. Not advice.
About this series & how we build these
Want the full study and the spreadsheet?
Full write-up plus the editable Excel model.
Found a flaw? Attack the model
The full study (PDF) and Excel model are available on a computer.
Edition: 6 Aug 2026. Older editions stay in the Library.