Modon Holding PSC
Fundamental — what it's worthbottom-up fair value
Built up from projects, cash and earnings — what is it worth?
Is it cheap or expensive right now?
Latest price vs our fair value. A comparison, not a recommendation.
A weighted what-if off the published fair value — not a re-run DCF, and it never touches the Monte Carlo section below. The sizes are quick reads off the study’s own sensitivity grids, each of which re-runs the whole backlog-driven build. Note which lever dominates: the terminal cost of capital — because 77.5% of the enterprise value sits in the terminal block, and the study says that plainly rather than hiding it. The second biggest is whether the sales machine keeps running at all: the study computes a run-off that sells NOTHING new after the current backlog and still lands at AED 3.78, above the market price — that gap between the wind-down reading and the tape is the whole thesis.
Technical & price structuretrend, momentum, key levels
Trend, momentum and key levels — what is the price doing now?
What the chart says
In plain terms: Modon has already sold AED 65.4 billion of property it has not yet built or handed over — that is the contracted backlog, 95% of it development sales, and it converts into revenue on a schedule the study models year by year. Capitalise that conversion plus a continuing sales machine and the cash-flow lens says AED 5.29 a share; assume the company never sells another dirham after the current book and the wind-down still says AED 3.78 — above the AED 2.83 market price. The earnings lenses (AED 1.46–2.65) sit below the price because today's income statement barely shows the backlog yet. The weighted central is AED 3.38, about 19% above the market. The bet is conversion: receivables at 440 days of revenue have to actually collect, and the H1-2026 release — AED 26 billion of sales in six months — is the evidence the machine is currently running.
Key levels
Volatility & where the case breaks
| Typical daily moveRoughly how far the price swings in an average day (based on a measure called ATR). Bigger means choppier. | ~1.8% |
| Where our case breaks | below 1.03 |
Monte Carlo — where could the price go?near-term price paths
50,000 simulated futures — near-term price paths, independent of the fundamental value.
The full 3-month path, from the same distribution as the odds above. Static — nothing here is adjustable, unlike the levers under Fundamental.
Our weighted fair value of AED 3.38 sits ABOVE the middle of the simulated three-month cone (AED 2.86) — the tape would have to travel to roughly its 90th percentile in three months to reach it. Read that gap for what it is: the simulation prices where the price can drift on its own volatility, the study prices what the business is worth as the backlog converts. The two are different objects on different clocks and are never blended. A close below AED 2.40 — the deepest support on the chart — or a backlog miss in the next results release is where we’d rebuild the study.
The exact percentiles
The 5th / 25th / middle / 75th / 95th outcomesLine up all 50,000 outcomes low to high — these are the values at the 5%, 25%, 50%, 75% and 95% marks., from 50,000 paths.
| Timeframe | Rare low (5%) | 25% | Middle | 75% | Rare high (95%) |
|---|
What drives the odds
One Monte Carlo model, 50,000 paths, driven by the outside forces relevant to an Abu Dhabi master developer: off-plan sales pace and the mortgage-affordability effect of the EIBOR path, the backlog conversion and handover schedule, oil price and the UAE fiscal impulse behind it, population and visa-reform inflows into Abu Dhabi housing, construction-cost inflation on the unrecognised backlog, the pipeline flowing from the IHC ecosystem it sits inside, the Ras El Hekma exposure in Egypt with its own currency risk, hospitality seasonality, and a free float thin enough to move on modest volume. Full mechanics in the methodology.
Peer set & risks
How it compares to the others we cover
"Cheap / expensive" = vs our fair value. Not advice.
About this series & how we build these
Want the full study and the spreadsheet?
Full write-up plus the editable Excel model.
Found a flaw? Attack the model
The full study (PDF) and Excel model are available on a computer.
Edition: 9 Aug 2026. Older editions stay in the Library.