Egyptian International Pharmaceutical Industries (EIPICO)
Fundamental — what it's worthbottom-up fair value
Built up from projects, cash and earnings — what is it worth?
Is it cheap or expensive right now?
Latest price vs our fair value. A comparison, not a recommendation.
A weighted what-if off the published fair value — not a re-run DCF, and it never touches the Monte Carlo section below. The sizes come from the study’s own sensitivity grids, each of which re-runs the whole three-line unit build. Note which lever dominates: the terminal risk-free rate, not the operations — because three quarters of the operating value sits in the terminal block, and that one input is the only major assumption in the study still resting on a convention rather than a source. The top lever is the one thing the published number does not contain at all.
Technical & price structuretrend, momentum, key levels
Trend, momentum and key levels — what is the price doing now?
What the chart says
In plain terms: the company has just finished a USD 100 million biologicals plant. From FY2026 its EGP 4,901 million construction balance — larger than the entire depreciated property base before it — starts depreciating, and this study charges every pound of that while crediting the plant with NO revenue, because the company has published none. That is why the fundamental readings cluster at EGP 58–73 against a price of EGP 130.05. Read the other way: the market is paying EGP 72.01 a share, 55% of the price, for that plant — roughly 2.1 times what it cost to build — which needs about USD 120 million a year of biosimilar revenue by FY2030 to justify. That is the bet, and it is a number the company will eventually disclose.
Key levels
Volatility & where the case breaks
| Typical daily moveRoughly how far the price swings in an average day (based on a measure called ATR). Bigger means choppier. | 7.84 |
| Where our case breaks | above 73 |
Monte Carlo — where could the price go?near-term price paths
50,000 simulated futures — near-term price paths, independent of the fundamental value.
The full 3-month path, from the same distribution as the odds above. Static — nothing here is adjustable, unlike the levers under Fundamental.
Our fundamental range tops out at EGP 0.95 even in the bull case — so unlike most names we cover, the whole simulated price cone sits ABOVE the fair-value range, not around it. Read that gap for what it is: the simulation prices where the tape can travel over three months, the study prices what the business is worth. A sustained move above EGP 0.95 on the fundamentals — collection landing, margins recovering, rates falling — is the point where we’d rebuild the study.
The exact percentiles
The 5th / 25th / middle / 75th / 95th outcomesLine up all 50,000 outcomes low to high — these are the values at the 5%, 25%, 50%, 75% and 95% marks., from 50,000 paths.
| Timeframe | Rare low (5%) | 25% | Middle | 75% | Rare high (95%) |
|---|
What drives the odds
One Monte Carlo model, 50,000 paths, driven by the outside forces relevant to a hard-currency industrial exporter listed in a soft-currency market: the LME copper price, the EGP/USD path, the CBE policy corridor and the pace of easing, Egyptian inflation, Gulf and North African grid and infrastructure spending, the order book and its conversion rate, interconnector and data-centre demand for cable and transformers, energy and freight costs, convertibility and repatriation risk on the foreign earnings, and the free float — 11.6% of the shares, with 68% held by the family and 20% by Electra, which is what makes the tape thin. Full mechanics in the methodology.
Peer set & risks
How it compares to the others we cover
"Cheap / expensive" = vs our fair value. Not advice.
About this series & how we build these
Want the full study and the spreadsheet?
Full write-up plus the editable Excel model.
Found a flaw? Attack the model
The full study (PDF) and Excel model are available on a computer.
Edition: 6 Aug 2026. Older editions stay in the Library.