Riyadh Cables Group Company
Fundamental — what it's worthbottom-up fair value
Built up from projects, cash and earnings — what is it worth?
Is it cheap or expensive right now?
Latest price vs our fair value. A comparison, not a recommendation.
A weighted what-if off the published fair value — not a re-run DCF, and it never touches the Monte Carlo section below. Each lever is sized from the study’s own sensitivity grid for that input, then scaled by the 45% weight the cash-flow lens carries in the weighted central, since that is the lens the grids re-run. Note which levers dominate: the SUSTAINED GROSS MARGIN and the terminal growth, not the near-term operations. On the reviewed H1-2026 margin of 15.26% the cash-flow value is SAR 127.91; on the FY2025 peak of 16.0% it is 139.60; on a squeeze to 14.5% it is 116.10 — which is why the crux is computed both ways and shown here rather than buried.
Technical & price structuretrend, momentum, key levels
Trend, momentum and key levels — what is the price doing now?
What the chart says
In plain terms: this is the largest cable and wire maker in Saudi Arabia — power, building and telecommunications cable — and a significant exporter into the Gulf, chiefly the UAE. It is a metal converter: copper and aluminium are about 95% of its cost of sales, so its gross margin is an OUTPUT of the metal price, not a stable input. The study builds it SEGMENT BY SEGMENT: the cables leg (98% of revenue) as a metal converter — a tonnage index priced as metal content on its own commodity path plus a conversion spread — and the small high-voltage turnkey and other legs on their own paths at their disclosed margins. The one number everything turns on is the gross margin the business sustains now that the 2024–25 metal tailwind has passed, and the study does not pick one — it computes it BOTH ways: on the reviewed first-half-2026 actual of 15.26% the cash-flow lens is worth SAR 127.91, on the 2025 full-year peak of 16.0% it is 139.60, and on a further squeeze to 14.5% it is 116.10. The four lenses land between SAR 86 and SAR 128 and weight to SAR 109, against a price of SAR 104.80.
Key levels
Volatility & where the case breaks
| Typical daily moveRoughly how far the price swings in an average day (based on a measure called ATR). Bigger means choppier. | 0.11 |
| Where our case breaks | above 10.80 |
Monte Carlo — where could the price go?near-term price paths
50,000 simulated futures — near-term price paths, independent of the fundamental value.
The full 3-month path, from the same distribution as the odds above. Static — nothing here is adjustable, unlike the levers under Fundamental.
The three-month cone runs SAR 76.55 to SAR 144.06 around a middle of 105.06, and the fundamental field runs SAR 64 to SAR 198 around a weighted central of 109 — so the cone and the fair-value field overlap rather than argue. Read them as answering different questions: the simulation prices where the tape can travel over three months from the tape’s own behaviour, the study prices what the business is worth from its cash flows. The calibration behind the cone is PARITY, not skill, and the record is short — see the note below.
The exact percentiles
The 5th / 25th / middle / 75th / 95th outcomesLine up all 50,000 outcomes low to high — these are the values at the 5%, 25%, 50%, 75% and 95% marks., from 50,000 paths.
| Timeframe | Rare low (5%) | 25% | Middle | 75% | Rare high (95%) |
|---|
What drives the odds
One Monte Carlo model, 50,000 paths, driven by the outside forces relevant to a Saudi cable maker: London Metal Exchange copper and aluminium prices — about 95% of the cost of sales, hedged but not eliminated — Saudi grid and construction spending (the national electricity company’s capital programme, the giga-projects and housing) that drives domestic cable volume, the export share of roughly a quarter of sales into a tight Gulf market, the conversion spread the business earns per tonne, Saudi wage and utility inflation on the non-metal cost, and the riyal’s fixed parity to the dollar, which removes the currency channel from the dollar-priced metal. Full mechanics in the methodology.
How well has this cone actually done?
Honestly: the record is short and the verdict is PARITY, not skill. The share listed in December 2022, so only about 3.7 years of history exist and just 13 non-overlapping three-month windows have resolved. Across those the cone came in 0.42% BEHIND a carry-anchored random walk on a scale-normalised score — a dead heat, well inside the noise band. Coverage ran 85% / 92% at the 50% / 90% bands, the inner band running wide, and the outcomes were roughly uniform across the distribution (PIT mean 0.52). The five-year requirement is met at the market level rather than the name level: the Tadawul panel of 11 names carries 392 resolved windows, with skill of −0.2% and a 90% interval of −0.9% to +0.4%, which straddles zero. Read the bands as a well-behaved but lightly-evidenced estimate of dispersion.
Peer set & risks
How it compares to the others we cover
"Cheap / expensive" = vs our fair value. Not advice.
About this series & how we build these
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Full write-up plus the editable Excel model.
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Edition: 18 Aug 2026. Older editions stay in the Library.