Savola Group Company
Fundamental — what it's worthbottom-up fair value
Built up from projects, cash and earnings — what is it worth?
Is it cheap or expensive right now?
Latest price vs our fair value. A comparison, not a recommendation.
A weighted what-if off the published fair value — not a re-run DCF, and it never touches the Monte Carlo section below. Each lever is sized from the study’s own published variants for that input, then scaled by the 45% weight the cash-flow lens carries in the weighted central, since that is the lens those variants re-run. Note which levers dominate: PANDA’S SALES DENSITY and the store cadence — the expansion question — not the processing margins. On the density path the cash-flow value is SAR 24.99 if the programme matures and 19.63 if the erosion never fades; on the store cadence it is 24.99 on company guidance and 19.53 at the observed first-half run-rate — which is why the crux is computed both ways and shown here rather than buried.
Technical & price structuretrend, momentum, key levels
Trend, momentum and key levels — what is the price doing now?
What the chart says
In plain terms: this is the Gulf’s largest food platform — edible oils, sugar, pasta and nuts & spices through Savola Foods, grocery retail through Panda, plus Herfy’s restaurants and Al Kabeer frozen food. The 2024 reset ended the holding-company era: Savola cancelled a third of its shares and distributed its entire Almarai stake, so what is left to value is an operating business. The study builds it from the disclosed units — oil, sugar and pasta as tonnes times price with a gross profit per tonne, Panda as stores times sales per store — and lets every processing margin fall out as a result. The one question everything turns on is whether Panda’s twenty-stores-a-year programme is creating value or burning it: sales per store FELL between 6% and 7% in the first half of 2026 as new, smaller stores opened into a discounter-crowded market. The study does not pick a side — it computes both: let density stabilise as the store-refresh programme matures and the cash-flow lens is worth SAR 24.99; hold the erosion forever and it is 19.63; hold the store programme at the observed first-half run-rate instead of guidance and it is 19.53. The four lenses land between SAR 24.49 and SAR 35.12 and weight to SAR 27.24, against a price of SAR 25.40.
Key levels
Volatility & where the case breaks
| Typical daily moveRoughly how far the price swings in an average day (based on a measure called ATR). Bigger means choppier. | 0.11 |
| Where our case breaks | above 10.80 |
Monte Carlo — where could the price go?near-term price paths
50,000 simulated futures — near-term price paths, independent of the fundamental value.
The full 3-month path, from the same distribution as the odds above. Static — nothing here is adjustable, unlike the levers under Fundamental.
The three-month cone runs SAR 19.76 to SAR 33.35 around a middle of 25.68, and the fundamental field runs SAR 11 to SAR 40 around a weighted central of 27.24 — so the cone and the fair-value field overlap rather than argue. Read them as answering different questions: the simulation prices where the tape can travel over three months from the tape’s own behaviour, the study prices what the business is worth from its cash flows. The calibration behind the cone is PARITY, not skill — see the note below.
The exact percentiles
The 5th / 25th / middle / 75th / 95th outcomesLine up all 50,000 outcomes low to high — these are the values at the 5%, 25%, 50%, 75% and 95% marks., from 50,000 paths.
| Timeframe | Rare low (5%) | 25% | Middle | 75% | Rare high (95%) |
|---|
What drives the odds
One Monte Carlo model, 50,000 paths, driven by the outside forces relevant to a Gulf food and grocery platform: world vegetable-oil and sugar prices — vegetable-oil benchmarks sit at four-year highs, which is the cost side of half the processing book, while soft world sugar flatters refining spreads but deflates the sugar top line — Saudi grocery competition and discounter penetration, which set Panda’s sales density and price investment; Saudi population and staple-food demand growth; the Egyptian pound, since about a fifth of revenue is Egypt and the group carries a net Egyptian-pound liability that turns devaluation into a partial hedge; and the riyal’s fixed parity to the dollar, which removes the currency channel from dollar-priced commodities. Full mechanics in the methodology.
How well has this cone actually done?
Honestly: the verdict is PARITY, not skill. Over the last five years, 19 non-overlapping three-month forecasts (October 2021 to April 2026) scored 0.9% AHEAD of a carry-anchored random walk on a scale-normalised score — a dead heat, well inside the noise band, and the result holds across bootstrap block sizes. Realized outcomes fell inside the 50% / 80% / 90% bands 53% / 79% / 84% of the time, and the percentile ranks of outcomes were roughly uniform (chi-square p = 0.28, Kolmogorov–Smirnov p = 0.64). Across the full cleaned history — 58 windows since 2012 — the same score was 0.4%. The longer replay in the chart above carries an honest warning: the 90% band held 88.9% of outcomes across the whole record but only 76.5% over the last 17 windows, so it has been running narrow in the current regime. Read the bands as a well-behaved estimate of dispersion, not as an edge.
Peer set & risks
How it compares to the others we cover
"Cheap / expensive" = vs our fair value. Not advice.
About this series & how we build these
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Edition: 18 Aug 2026. Older editions stay in the Library.