Sinai Cement Company S.A.E.
Fundamental — what it's worthbottom-up fair value
Built up from projects, cash and earnings — what is it worth?
Is it cheap or expensive right now?
Latest price vs our fair value. A comparison, not a recommendation.
A weighted what-if off the published fair value — not a re-run DCF, and it never touches the Monte Carlo section below. The sizes come from the study’s own sensitivity grids, each of which re-runs the whole kiln build, scaled down for the fact that only the cash-flow lenses move. Two things are worth noticing. The first is that operations dominate here, not the discount rate: two points of EBITDA margin outweigh two points of CBE easing, because half the enterprise value is already sitting on the balance sheet as cash rather than in a distant terminal year. The second is the terminal-growth lever, which runs BACKWARDS — more growth subtracts value. That is not a wiring error. The terminal return on replacement-cost capital is 9.3% against a 19.0% terminal cost of capital, so every pound reinvested in the terminal year earns less than it costs. Growth is only worth having when the return clears the hurdle.
Technical & price structuretrend, momentum, key levels
Trend, momentum and key levels — what is the price doing now?
What the chart says
In plain terms: EGP 79.00 buys a company whose one plant runs at about 71% of its kiln capacity and whose balance sheet holds EGP 4.9bn of net cash — 43% of the market value — against EGP 36.8mn of debt. Discount the cash the kiln can actually generate at Egypt’s 28.3% cost of capital, add the cash back, deduct minorities, and the four lenses average EGP 53.12. So the market is paying about EGP 6.5bn for an operating business the cash-flow lens values at EGP 6.6bn of enterprise value, and then paying again for the cash. The gap is not a claim that the plant is bad; it is a claim that at a 28% cost of money, a 3.8Mt grinding plant in a market with 76Mt of installed capacity against 54Mt of consumption — with 12.6Mt of mothballed military capacity being revived into it and the EU carbon border levy raising the cost of exporting the surplus from 2026 — is worth less than the tape says. The cash is the floor. The kiln is the question.
Key levels
Volatility & where the case breaks
| Typical daily moveRoughly how far the price swings in an average day (based on a measure called ATR). Bigger means choppier. | 3.66 |
| Sessions with no price changeHow often the stock closes exactly where it closed the day before — a direct read on how thin the trading is. | 29.3% |
| Where our case breaks | above 59.10 |
Monte Carlo — where could the price go?near-term price paths
50,000 simulated futures — near-term price paths, independent of the fundamental value.
The full 3-month path, from the same distribution as the odds above. Static — nothing here is adjustable, unlike the levers under Fundamental.
Read this cone as illustrative only. It is the one section of this study that does not pass its own test. Replayed over five years the model’s three-month cones score WORSE than a plain random walk (CRPS skill −14.8%), and the diagnosis is over-coverage rather than mis-centring: the band is about four and a half times as wide as the benchmark’s, so it contains the outcome far more often than it should — 95% of the time where 90% was intended. The mechanism is liquidity. SCEM closes exactly unchanged on 29.3% of sessions, three and a half times the Egyptian market median and the second thinnest of the 33 EGX names we track. Through those quiet stretches the benchmark’s own volatility estimate collapses to almost nothing and no honest cone can beat it; the wide band only pays in the jump quarters, of which this stock has had few and violent ones. We are not tuning the width to fix it, because fitting the band to the sample it is scored on is exactly the overfitting our promotion rule was written to stop. What survives is the market-level test: the 30-name Egyptian panel this fit is drawn from passes at +1.58%, and that is the gate the model is published under. The fundamental range above does not depend on any of this.
The exact percentiles
The 5th / 25th / middle / 75th / 95th outcomesLine up all 50,000 outcomes low to high — these are the values at the 5%, 25%, 50%, 75% and 95% marks., from 50,000 paths.
| Timeframe | Rare low (5%) | 25% | Middle | 75% | Rare high (95%) |
|---|
What drives the odds
One Monte Carlo model, 50,000 paths, driven by the outside forces relevant to a single-plant cement producer in a structurally oversupplied market: Egyptian construction and housing starts, the pace at which roughly 12.6Mt of mothballed military-owned capacity is revived into a market already carrying 76Mt of capacity against 54Mt of consumption, domestic cement pricing and the ex-works discount to it, the EU carbon border mechanism and what it does to the landed cost of Egyptian clinker in Europe from 2026, delivered petcoke and coal prices, the industrial electricity tariff after subsidy reform, the EGP/USD path — which raises the cost of imported fuel and the pound value of export tonnes at the same time — the CBE policy corridor, which matters twice here because 43% of the market value is cash earning a deposit rate, and the thinness of the tape itself: this stock closes unchanged on nearly three sessions in ten. Full mechanics in the methodology.
Peer set & risks
How it compares to the others we cover
"Cheap / expensive" = vs our fair value. Not advice.
About this series & how we build these
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Edition: 6 Aug 2026. Older editions stay in the Library.