What is the fair-value range for Americana Restaurants International PLC (AMR)?

testahil publishes a probability distribution of where AMR could trade over the next 1–3 months — the simulated 5th–95th percentile range and the central 50% — not a single price target or a buy/sell call. The full study and open model show the methodology. This is educational analysis, not investment advice.

How is the AMR valuation calculated?

The study uses an instrument-appropriate lens — a three-statement FCFF DCF built bottom-up on three disclosed product lines with a PER-TONNE COST STACK — feedstock, energy, chemicals and fixed conversion charged separately, so the gross margin (blended and per line) is an output rather than an input, cross-checked against normalized earnings power, relative EV/EBITDA and a justified price-to-book — combined with a 50,000-path Monte Carlo simulation that expresses the result as a probability distribution. Every assumption is visible and editable in the free Excel model.

Does testahil recommend buying or selling AMR?

No. testahil never issues buy, sell, or hold recommendations. It publishes fair-value ranges and probability distributions as educational material, and grades its own forecasts publicly when they resolve.

Is the Americana Restaurants International PLC model free to download?

Yes. The full AMR valuation study (PDF/Word) and the open Excel model are free to download, with every assumption editable.

Americana Restaurants (AMR) — is the stock worth it?

Fundamental — what it's worthbottom-up fair value

Lens 1 of 3Fundamental analysis — what is it worth?

Built up from projects, cash and earnings — what is it worth?

Is it cheap or expensive right now?

Latest price vs our fair value. A comparison, not a recommendation.

A weighted what-if off the published fair value — not a re-run DCF, and it never touches the Monte Carlo section below. The sizes are quick estimates read off the study’s own sensitivity grids, each of which re-runs the whole bottom-up build. Note which lever dominates: the terminal margin question — whether today’s 25%-plus kitchen economics are structural or a cyclical peak against an audited average of 22.8% — because 74.9% of the cash-flow value sits in the terminal block. That is the study’s contested judgement, computed both ways (AED 2.31 structural, 1.98 cyclical) and never averaged.

Technical & price structuretrend, momentum, key levels

Lens 2 of 3Technical analysis — what is the chart doing?

Trend, momentum and key levels — what is the price doing now?

Price 50-day MA 200-day MA Daily close · last 500 sessions to 7 Aug 2026

What the chart says

In plain terms: the region’s biggest restaurant company — 2,749 KFCs, Pizza Huts, Hardee’s and Krispy Kremes across 12 countries — is trading almost exactly where four independent valuation methods say it should: a weighted fair value of AED 2.19 against a price of 2.23. The whole question is the kitchen margin. The company earns more than 25 cents of operating cash on every dirham of sales today, against a four-year audited average of 22.8 — and whether that gap is a durable structural gain (worth AED 2.31) or a cyclical peak that reverts (worth 1.98) is a judgement this study computes both ways and refuses to average. One honest mechanical finding leans on the answer: as the delivery channel grows from 44% towards 52%-plus of sales, its aggregator fees grow with it, so the margin in this model peaks near 25.4% and then eases — it does not expand forever.

Key levels

Volatility & where the case breaks

Typical daily moveRoughly how far the price swings in an average day (based on a measure called ATR). Bigger means choppier.	0.06
Where our case breaks	above 3.44

Monte Carlo — where could the price go?near-term price paths

Lens 3 of 3Monte Carlo — where could the price go?

50,000 simulated futures — near-term price paths, independent of the fundamental value.

The full 3-month path, from the same distribution as the odds above. Static — nothing here is adjustable, unlike the levers under Fundamental.

Our weighted fair value of AED 2.19 sits a hair below the price of 2.23, and the three-month cone (1.68–2.96) brackets both — the simulation and the study agree this stock is roughly where it should be, which is itself the finding. The information is in the tails: a sustained move below AED 1.98 would mean the market has adopted the cyclical reading of the margin, and a sustained move above 2.31 would mean it is paying for the structural reading and then some. Either tail is the point where we’d rebuild the study, because the price would then be answering the study’s own contested question.

The exact percentiles

The 5th / 25th / middle / 75th / 95th outcomesLine up all 50,000 outcomes low to high — these are the values at the 5%, 25%, 50%, 75% and 95% marks., from 50,000 paths.

Timeframe	Rare low (5%)	25%	Middle	75%	Rare high (95%)

What drives the odds

One Monte Carlo model, 50,000 paths, driven by the outside forces relevant to a dollar-reporting consumer operator spread across twelve currencies: the food-input basket (poultry, cooking oil, packaging), restaurant wage inflation and nationalisation quotas in the Gulf, the delivery channel’s share of sales and the fees the aggregators take on it, GCC consumer spending and the oil cycle behind it, the Egyptian pound and Kazakh tenge against the dollar-pegged core, boycott-driven traffic swings in the sensitive markets, the Fed path that the dirham and riyal import directly, and the pace of net store openings. Full mechanics in the methodology.

Peer set & risks

How it compares to the others we cover

"Cheap / expensive" = vs our fair value. Not advice.

About this series & how we build these

Want the full study and the spreadsheet?

Full write-up plus the editable Excel model.

Found a flaw? Attack the model

Open the study (PDF) Open the model (Excel)

The full study (PDF) and Excel model are available on a computer.

Edition: 9 Aug 2026. Older editions stay in the Library.